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Minnesota | Here is my prediction. Yesterday I seen corn rolling in the afternoon. This was on a field that caught these timely rains. According to a lot on here that’s just a defense mechanism of that hybrid right? Corn is using .4” of water per day right now and will continue to do so for the next several weeks. Since corn was so stressed in June, this particular field maybe had 5 inches of rain since then. That’s 12.5 days at .4” a day, but that rain started coming a month ago. I have a feeling yesterday was the first sign of what’s to come. Don’t get me wrong, the field looked great and has tons of potential, but I’m not sure where it’s going to get its water from. I think yield loss by the day over the next 10 days in MN, SD, ND, and IA will be pretty high. If it was stressed in June from the heat, my math tells me it’s out of water again. Vegetative maps look ok when looking at the VHI as a whole, but it quietly slipped week over week and the year over year is continuing to be horrible. Not sure how we can even argue above trend anymore. Some of these private estimates I’ve seen I think are off their rocker because I just don’t see it. I own puts just in case, and I’m surely not selling cash corn with the unknown of production. This week was concerning that the trade doesn’t care about the heat. Are they waiting for demand signs before they care? Likely…triple digits in the forecast even for Des Moines next week. When is that ever good during pollination and grain fill? It’s either a shake out move, and or waiting for something known/unknown. I’m still leaning for a move higher at some point. They’ve had lofty expectations all year only to disappoint themselves and I think 179.5 is another lofty expectation only to set themselves up for another disappointment.
Edited by ZCZFarmer 7/24/2021 07:17
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The Next 10 Days
