An interesting read..

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/05/consolidation-trends-in-the-us-nitrogen-fertilizer-industry.html

Discussion

The previous section considered consolidation at the manufacturing level for nitrogen in the U.S., specifically based on ammonia production. Anhydrous ammonia is used directly as a fertilizer but also serves as the foundation for other nitrogen products such as urea and urea-ammonium nitrate (UAN) solutions (see farmdoc daily, February 17, 2021). Therefore, ammonia production capacity is a reasonable proxy for overall nitrogen manufacturing.

The domestic nitrogen fertilizer industry is considered highly concentrated under the 2023 DOJ/FTC Merger Guidelines, with a HHI of 0.201. The structure of the U.S. nitrogen industry is not new, as the share of the top 4 companies in terms of U.S. production capacity has been around 70% since 2003 (USGS, 2025).
 

Although this analysis focused on nitrogen, similar patterns of consolidation are evident in the phosphate and potash markets. In 2023, five mining companies operated nine active phosphate mines, compared to nine firms and 14 mines in 2002 (USGS, 2025). Two companies, Nutrien and Mosaic, control just over 89% of the potash production capacity in North America (Nutrien, 2024).
 

Furthermore, consolidation in agriculture is not unique to fertilizers. The top 4 companies in the soybean crushing, corn seeds, soybean seeds, and farm machinery sectors held 80%, 80%, 70% and 60.8% of the U.S. market share in 2024. Globally, the crop protection sector’s top 4 companies held 62% of the 2024 market share (Farm Action). Consolidation has not been limited to the input sector. Over time, the number of farms in the Midwest has also declined while production has increased (see farmdoc daily, July 29, 2024 and August 27, 2025). In 1987 large farms were responsible for operating 15% of all U.S. cropland, compared to 41% by 2017 (MacDonald, 2020).
 

It is also important to recognize that the fertilizer industry encompasses more than just manufacturers. The retail sector is more fragmented, but this upstream consolidation has important implications for the rest of the value chain, especially given that some manufacturers also have significant retail presence (i.e. Nutrien controls 21% of the U.S. retail industry (Nutrien, 2024)).
 

Consolidation is often viewed as a natural outcome of a mature industry. The fertilizer industry is mature, producing commodities that have remained largely unchanged over the past 40 years and varying little between firms in the sector. In this type of industry, one expects consolidation with low-cost producers surviving and higher-cost producers leaving the industry. One also expects prices to vary little across producers, and for those prices to be subject to global market events.
 

For farmers viewing the industry, consolidation presents issues in that all farms are relatively small compared to the firms supplying inputs in the industry. That may present fertilizer firms with market power that could impact product prices.  Another area on which consolidation could have an impact is the potential for further expansion of production capabilities. If the small number of large firms has strengthened existing barriers to entry, it could be argued that the expansion of US production capacity since 2010 would have been even larger. Domestic production capability has become more important as countries have moved away from free trade. Moreover, regulations aimed at achieving environmental goals and addressing safety concerns will add costs which will ultimately be passed on to buyers and likely reinforce the barriers preventing more new entrants and further expansion of domestic production capacity.
 

Farmers are able to partially manage fertilizer price volatility through strategies that include adjusting application rates, timing, and forward pricing purchases (see farmdoc daily, July 22, 2025, August 12, 2025, and March 31, 2026). However, individual farmers have limited ability to address the structure of the industry and any of the potential negative impacts of consolidation.
 

Regulatory and policy actions to examine and address consolidation in the industry have been discussed and considered by lawmakers. These include providing more pricing transparency, removal of existing trade barriers such as tariffs and countervailing duties, mandating USDA conduct an analysis of the industry, and a Department of Justice investigation. Implementation of any of these initiatives would take time with uncertainty surrounding the ultimate impacts on the industry and prices paid by farmers for fertilizer products. Therefore, issues and concerns associated with consolidation likely will continue into future years.

followup..

 https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2026/05/accelerated-permitting-grant-program-to-boost-domestic-fertilizer-usda-says/