Not too long ago fry posted a corn chart and I think it's worth emphasizing. I think the following chart says everything about the corn market right now. Corn is clearly in a downtrend until it proves otherwise so if you're short, the right thing is to stay short. I've been short both ZCZ15 (now rolled to H) and ZCZ16 since ZCZ15 was in the $4.40 range but I'm getting a bit itchy for lifting those hedges because of where corn is right now.

When the C point of this fork was established, price had a job to do and that was to reach the median line (ML or the middle line) of the fork. Price has been unable to do so for some time. Since the fork is so steep, it has now gotten to the point where price will have to go so low to reach the ML that most would agree that price cannot practically be reached. Therefore I believe it is not a matter of if we will fail to reach the ML, but when we verify that we have failed.

When price confirms that it will not reach the ML, it will do so by going above the upper median line (UML or the top solid line on the fork). As you can see, we are right there on my chart. fyrtownfarmer drew his fork a little differently than I do so on his fork price has been bouncing above and below the UML of the fork for a few days now.

If price closes decisively above the UML of my fork, it will be well above the UML on his fork and I would say it's likely at that point that we will have initiatiated the Hagopian rule and I will be lifting my hedges. Until such time, we're still in a downtrend and if you're short, it's best to stay short.

Quite honestly, if you were wanting to add some shorts with stops, this is probably not too bad of a place to do it because if it bounces over the UML, your stops hit and you're out. I would imagine the risk reward may not be as good as it was at various points in the past though.

One thing to keep in mind is that since this fork is so steep, even if it does hagopian, it doesn't really have to go that high to satisfy the hagopian rule. We could stay in a trading range until June of next year for all I know and meet the dotted blue line by going sideways. We could also go quite a bit higher though. The hagopian rule tells us that it will go at least as far above the UML as it went below the UML. So it could go significantly higher than the upper dotted blue line but that does not mean we are out of the downtrend.