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| Grains get smacked to close the week. We failed to break through to the upside and some cooler wetter forecasts in some areas came out.
So far we haven’t had much rain materialize and there is many areas that have a ton of heat coming and we are seeing some stress.
If Mondays conditions come in lower and that trend starts being lower along with hot forecats these markets could see some excitement.
We had horrible price action but the charts aren’t broken.
The markets just didn’t have enough reasons to goose this thing up. The funds are short a lot of corn and beans. There is going to be a time where they are going to need to cover. How long and how high that rally is when they cover depends on how much the U.S. farmer has sold. If the farmer has a lot sold then this rally could take us a little higher than if they weren’t sold.
That’s what I expect, sometime in the next month or two we get a rally from a weather scare. It’s gonna take us higher than it should, and that will be the selling opportunity.
Unless that weather scare comes to fruition and does material damage it’s going to be a selling opportunity.
A lot of times we want to make our sales in June, but right now it doesn’t feel like we are going to get that opportunity.
The acres report at the end of the month is going to have a massive impact on our balance sheet for corn. If we wind up on the bottom side of the trade range for acres it’s about 1 billion bushels less than the top side. Either way 1 billion bushels less or more moves this market massively. It says we could go a lot higher or a lot lower.
The report at the end of the month historically is one of the biggest game changers. If you go look at 2010 for example, this report started a 3 year rally.
Feels like crops aren’t going as good as they were a week ago. But far too early to make assumptions. Odds are we raise something pretty good. But I just think we are going to get a weather scare opportunity. We get an opportunity nearly every year.
Listen to today’s audio where we go over exact marketing plan scenarios based on specific situations you might be in.
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Edited by Mr.Grain 6/16/2024 08:42
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Grains smacked to end week. Acre report will be massive - market comments
