Like it or not.. markets are inexplicably tied to policy..

http://www.iowapbs.org/shows/mtom/market-plus/clip/13414/market-plus-kristi-van-ahn-kjeseth

What is actually coming out of this trade deal? And I think that's that question you're asking is, you know, how confident do we feel in this? We should feel pretty good because the initial purchase from China to get to that 12 million metric ton is supposed to be quick. And so, we're going to know whether or not they're going to hold to those standards sooner rather than later.

[Yeager] Because today is the 7th of November. It takes a long time to get some things organized.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yes.

[Yeager] That's what you're meaning, right?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah. And they want those purchases made quickly. And they are going to want those purchases made prior to Brazil's soybean crop coming. And then also leading up to this, there was a lot of rumors floating that China was short by 9 to 10 million metric ton for the December January time slot. So, if they are going to hold up this agreement, we should know sooner rather than later. But the big question is you can only hold them to so much, right? Like when are you going to start purchasing next year's soybeans? Because, you know, you made that agreement for those and I just don't know how much you really want to trust it. I also think I said this earlier that you can spin this story however you want to do it. Initially, when I saw the information, I was so frustrated because I don't feel like it is a good deal, right? The buying came in. Everyone was really excited about it. It's a very small amount of soybeans and it's just average moving forward and like even maybe a little bit below average purchases. But you're happy that it's something because they could have been completely stepping away from the market. So, try not to be so negative because my initial concept was that this was not a good thing. It was not a good deal. My big thing that brings the uncertainty into this is that on the back end of everything they were talking about with China, they said other Asian countries are willing to buy 19 million metric tons of soybeans as well, and that's all. And I'm like, is that 19 a year? No. Is that 19 spread out over three years? Is that 19 starting with this year? What is that 19 million metric ton and that uncertainty if they were actually going to be aggressive in purchasing soybeans, that is where you could find a lot of positivity for soybeans, in my opinion. But we know no details about it.

It’s not the first time.. Bush 2 is credited with advancing the ethanol boom.. notice the response by prices after this speech in 2002.

President George W Bush

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-the-dakota-ethanol-plant-wentworth-south-dakota

… But I think I got a pretty good handle on the importance of agriculture for the future of this country, and one of the most important ways to make sure the agriculture economy is strong is to promote value-added processing.

I said when I was running for President, I supported ethanol, and I meant it. I support it now, because not only do I know it's important for the ag sector of our economy, it's an important part of making sure we become less reliant on foreign sources of energy. I appreciate Senator Daschle working on the RFS standard.

And I appreciate John Thune working on the bio-energy rebate program, to make sure that we help increase, on the one hand, the demand for ethanol and, on the other hand, the supply of ethanol. It's good public policy for America. It's good for our air; it's good for our economy; and it's good for our national security.

Thank goodness we're self-sufficient in food. But we're not so self-sufficient in energy. And pretty soon they're going to get an energy bill to my desk, and I look forward to signing it. On the one hand, it's going to encourage more conservation. On the other hand, hopefully it will spur not only the development of renewables but more oil and gas at home, and the two are not mutually exclusive. The less reliant we are on foreign sources of crude oil, the better off we are in America.

I mentioned we're self-sufficient in food, and that's good. And we generally produce more than we need here at home. And if that's the case, it seems like we ought to figure out how to sell more of it overseas. The more markets that are open for U.S. farmers and ranchers, the better off our economy will be.

It is important that this Nation embrace free and fair trade. It is important that we understand that when we're good at something—and we're the best farmers and ranchers in the world—we ought to work to open up markets to sell our products all across the world.

And I will tell you the days are over with, with American ag being kind of shunted aside when it comes to international trade agreements. We need to keep American ag in the forefront of trade agreements. It ought to be the cornerstone of international trade policy. And that's been my record thus far as the President, and it will be my record so long as I am the President.

And corn prices took off from $2.30 a bushel..  politics don’t matter.. politicians don’t matter.. commodity groups don’t matter.. checkoffs don’t matter..

yal.. well.. prices say otherwise.

 

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