| I did the corn below.. (refreshed for review..)
| | US Crop Acreage | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | NASS | | | | | | | | | | | | 2013 | | | | Corn | | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | | Yld | 13 - 06 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | AR | 320 | 240 | 190 | 560 | 440 | 410 | 390 | 500 | 710 | 1,000 | | 187 | 810 | 426.32% | | | CO | 1,200 | 1,100 | 1,000 | 1,200 | 1,250 | 1,150 | 1,330 | 1,400 | 1,420 | 1,250 | | 131 | 250 | 25.00% | | | IL | 11,750 | 12,100 | 11,300 | 13,200 | 12,100 | 12,300 | 12,600 | 12,500 | 12,800 | 12,200 | | 178 | 900 | 7.96% | | | IN | 5,700 | 5,900 | 5,500 | 6,600 | 5,700 | 5,700 | 5,900 | 5,900 | 6,250 | 6,100 | | 177 | 600 | 10.91% | | | IA | 12,700 | 12,800 | 12,600 | 14,300 | 13,300 | 13,700 | 13,400 | 14,200 | 14,200 | 14,000 | | 165 | 1,400 | 11.11% | | | KS | 3,100 | 3,650 | 3,350 | 3,700 | 3,850 | 3,800 | 4,850 | 5,100 | 4,700 | 4,500 | | 127 | 1,150 | 34.33% | | | KY | 1,210 | 1,250 | 1,120 | 1,420 | 1,210 | 1,220 | 1,340 | 1,440 | 1,650 | 1,600 | | 170 | 480 | 42.86% | | | LA | 420 | 340 | 300 | 750 | 520 | 700 | 510 | 570 | 540 | 750 | | 173 | 450 | 150.00% | | | MI | 2,200 | 2,250 | 2,200 | 2,500 | 2,400 | 2,400 | 2,400 | 2,550 | 2,650 | 2,800 | | 155 | 600 | 27.27% | | | MN | 7,500 | 7,300 | 7,300 | 8,200 | 7,700 | 7,700 | 7,700 | 8,100 | 8,750 | 8,700 | | 160 | 1,400 | 19.18% | | | MO | 2,950 | 3,100 | 2,700 | 3,500 | 2,800 | 3,100 | 3,150 | 3,250 | 3,600 | 3,450 | | 138 | 750 | 27.78% | | | NE | 8,250 | 8,500 | 8,100 | 9,100 | 8,800 | 9,400 | 9,150 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,200 | | 170 | 2,100 | 25.93% | | | NY | 980 | 990 | 950 | 1,060 | 1,090 | 1,100 | 1,050 | 1,040 | 1,170 | 1,250 | | 138 | 300 | 31.58% | | | NC | 820 | 750 | 790 | 1,100 | 900 | 860 | 910 | 900 | 860 | 950 | | 142 | 160 | 20.25% | | | ND | 1,800 | 1,410 | 1,690 | 2,500 | 2,550 | 1,900 | 2,050 | 2,300 | 3,600 | 3,900 | | 110 | 2,210 | 130.77% | | | OH | 3,350 | 3,450 | 3,150 | 4,000 | 3,300 | 3,400 | 3,450 | 3,500 | 3,900 | 3,950 | | 177 | 800 | 25.40% | | | PA | 1,400 | 1,350 | 1,350 | 1,450 | 1,350 | 1,350 | 1,350 | 1,400 | 1,460 | 1,500 | | 147 | 150 | 11.11% | | | SD | 4,650 | 4,450 | 4,500 | 5,000 | 4,750 | 5,000 | 4,550 | 5,200 | 6,150 | 5,900 | | 138 | 1,400 | 31.11% | | | TX | 1,830 | 2,050 | 1,760 | 2,100 | 2,300 | 2,200 | 2,300 | 1,950 | 1,850 | 2,400 | | 138 | 640 | 36.36% | | | WI | 3,600 | 3,800 | 3,650 | 4,050 | 3,800 | 3,750 | 3,900 | 4,150 | 4,350 | 4,200 | | 146 | 550 | 15.07% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 158.8 | | | | | Total | 80,930 | 81,759 | 78,327 | 92,888 | 85,982 | 87,035 | 88,192 | 92,282 | 97,155 | 97,379 | NASS | 19,052 | 24.32% | | | | 2.06 | 2.00 | 3.04 | 4.20 | 4.06 | 3.55 | 5.18 | 6.25 | 6.89 | 95,400 | WASDE | | | Total Acreage | 322,329 | 317,802 | 318,610 | 320,369 | 324,819 | 319,250 | 316,694 | 315,143 | 326,320 | 325,600 | | | |
I highlight some of the key points.. (of course that would change when they update to match WASDE..) Also note that updates change acreage.. so.. not 100% sure but.. "close enough." Now this isn't all the states.. I condensed it down mostly to the states that USDA reports grain stocks on. Also of note.. 4 of the 6 largest acreage gainers are in the Plains states.. ND, NE, SD and Ks.. "just say'in" I think this bolsters my argument about a flattening of the yield gains.. (other than NE ) those acreage gainers are NOT top end yielders.. I dug out the latest yield data for 2013 by state and added that.
Note that 2 of the six largest expansion states had average yields greater than one standard deviation below the national trend (in blue) for 2013.. KS and ND.. which with all the expansion on lower yielding acres over this period would "probably" be the "norm."
I'm also struck by how constant some of the core cornbelt states (such as Illinois) are.. Ill planted 12.1 myn acres in 2004.. jumped to 13.2 in 07 going Corn on Corn.. then back to the rotations by 13 at 12.2 myn acres.. Pretty much ditto IN, IA, OH who all made highest plantings in the data set in 2007.
Cotton states such as AR, LA (didn't do the rest of the south but assume the same in MS etc..) are seeing a MAJOR shift to corn.. AR up 426% (Salute!) with GOOD yields.. 187 bu.
Plains states such as NE, ND, SD and KS are seeing BIG Acreage increases.. but are relatively low yielders ('cept NE of course.. ) This acreage (including dryland in NE) is adding yield VARIABILITY to the trend.. as well as dragging national yields down.
The WASDE difference vs NASS is probably the PP.
I didn't post 2012 yields but 3 states.. MN 165 (2012) to 160 (13) CO 133 to 131 and NC 122 to 110 saw yield declines.. YoY.
Now for the Soybeans.. Similar to the Corn above..
| US Soybeans | | | | | | | | | | | | | Harvested acres | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Yield | 13 - 06 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | AL | 145 | 150 | 180 | 310 | 430 | 360 | 295 | 335 | 410 | 43.0 | 260 | 173.33% | | AR | 3,000 | 3,100 | 2,790 | 3,150 | 3,270 | 3,090 | 3,270 | 3,160 | 3,350 | 43.5 | 250 | 8.06% | | IL | 9,450 | 10,050 | 8,150 | 8,600 | 9,350 | 9,250 | 8,860 | 8,920 | 9,350 | 49.0 | -700 | -6.97% | | IN | 5,380 | 5,680 | 4,680 | 5,200 | 5,440 | 5,290 | 5,290 | 5,140 | 5,230 | 51.0 | -450 | -7.92% | | IA | 10,050 | 10,050 | 8,520 | 8,950 | 9,530 | 10,150 | 9,230 | 9,300 | 9,430 | 44.5 | -620 | -6.17% | | KS | 2,850 | 3,000 | 2,550 | 3,100 | 3,650 | 4,050 | 3,750 | 3,810 | 3,890 | 36.0 | 890 | 29.67% | | KY | 1,250 | 1,380 | 1,080 | 1,320 | 1,420 | 1,380 | 1,480 | 1,470 | 1,590 | 49.5 | 210 | 15.22% | | LA | 850 | 780 | 590 | 970 | 940 | 1,000 | 980 | 1,115 | 1,080 | 48.0 | 300 | 38.46% | | MI | 1,990 | 1,980 | 1,740 | 1,890 | 1,990 | 2,090 | 1,940 | 1,990 | 1,890 | 44.0 | -90 | -4.55% | | MN | 6,800 | 7,200 | 6,150 | 6,950 | 7,120 | 7,410 | 7,020 | 6,990 | 6,720 | 41.0 | -480 | -6.67% | | MS | 1,590 | 1,770 | 1,420 | 2,180 | 2,030 | 2,200 | 1,800 | 1,950 | 1,900 | 45.0 | 130 | 7.34% | | MO | 4,960 | 5,150 | 4,550 | 5,000 | 5,300 | 5,450 | 5,200 | 5,260 | 5,640 | 35.5 | 490 | 9.51% | | NE | 4,660 | 4,800 | 3,770 | 4,700 | 4,760 | 5,350 | 4,830 | 4,990 | 4,750 | 53.0 | -50 | -1.04% | | NY | 188 | 188 | 203 | 231 | 254 | 282 | 277 | 312 | 317 | 48.0 | 129 | 68.62% | | NC | 1,460 | 1,390 | 1,360 | 1,570 | 1,750 | 1,520 | 1,360 | 1,580 | 1,680 | 33.0 | 290 | 20.86% | | ND | 2,900 | 3,700 | 2,990 | 3,340 | 3,870 | 3,760 | 3,950 | 4,730 | 4,360 | 30.0 | 660 | 17.84% | | OH | 4,480 | 4,380 | 4,130 | 4,580 | 4,530 | 4,680 | 4,540 | 4,580 | 4,530 | 49.0 | 150 | 3.42% | | PA | 420 | 450 | 420 | 440 | 445 | 465 | 490 | 520 | 550 | 49.0 | 100 | 22.22% | | SD | 3,850 | 3,750 | 3,180 | 4,040 | 4,190 | 4,300 | 4,070 | 4,710 | 4,750 | 40.0 | 1,000 | 26.67% | | TX | 230 | 200 | 82 | 185 | 190 | 180 | 90 | 110 | 95 | 25.0 | -105 | -52.50% | | WI | 1,580 | 1,620 | 1,330 | 1,560 | 1,620 | 1,660 | 1,600 | 1,700 | 1,670 | 38.0 | 50 | 3.09% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total | 71,361 | 73,935 | 62,820 | 72,121 | 76,372 | 77,986 | 73,636 | 76,104 | 76,918 | 43.3 | 2,983 | 4.03% | | Ave $$ | $5.66 | $6.43 | $10.10 | $9.97 | $9.59 | $11.30 | $12.50 | $14.40 | $12.70 | | | | | D/C % | 4% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 10% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Most of the growth in the Modern era for Soybean acreage.. AGAIN has come from the Plains states.. SD, ND, KS which are mostly lower yielding.. Along with Mizzou. Flip side the highest yielding states.. IL, IN, NE as well as IA have seen acreage reductions.
So once again I believe this ALSO calls for a flattening of trendline yields.
Edited by JonSCKs 5/30/2014 08:13
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Corn and Soybean Acreage changes by state
