After the WASDE report USDA updates it's yearbook which gives us usage by quarter for corn.. here it is.

( http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/feed-gra... )

Now I cross referenced that with the expected Farmer Marketing percentages by month from the MYA updates at KSU..

( http://www.agmanager.info/crops/insurance/risk_mgt/rm_pdf14/AB_Est-... )

to build this burn table by quarter..

So as you can see looking at the farmer selling minus demand column the first two quarters show where farmer selling exceeds usage and commercials should be able to accumulate stocks..  However, the final quarters reverse and Hedged inventory comes out to meet demand.  

Caution.. the MYA farmer ESTIMATES are historical averages (or however KSU comes up with them from NASS..) and they can change.. this is WHAT is affecting basis from a NATIONAL perspective.. 

Obviously we know that THIS YEAR a lot of the bushels are in in the Upper Midwest.. that need to make their way to the Eastern Cornbelt and South into Broiler country (Arkansas.. etc) as well as for export to NOLA.  So if we did this by a regional basis we could add some more color to the situation.

I wonder.. and have argued just how much farmers are going to pitch grain vs normal because of..

A) how cheap prices are.. "just wait for a weather market later.."
B) 2016 will be a Yield post El Nino.. the ONI number is now falling.. and odds of a La Nina exceed the odds of a continued El Nino by June/July/August

( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/en... )

So what kind of yield can we expect for the 2016 crop?  About half the time post El Nino's.. it's okay.. the other half.. well.. 83..88..11/12.. so ???

and how will this affect Producer selling during the upcoming months?

aka will producers continue to hold tightly to grain stocks as a hedge against a 1983..1988..2011/12 weather yield hit as these could be similar years..???

The thing that 2011 taught us.. is that when it goes south.. it can go SOUTH in a BIG WAY.. 

( http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=592042&pos... )