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Mascoutah, Illinois | Ehoff, I could type for a couple of hours on my thoughts but it would be quite boring and not of conventional thinking. My belief is we have reached peak growth in this cycle with stocks in the housing market and consumer discretionary rolling over. I am seeing demand slow for the first time at my place of employment for the first time since the pandemic started. I think we see the same playbook as we did in 2007-2009 but obviously not at the same scale in this cycle. Lumber futures are 50 percent lower in 2022 for July lumber versus the high we just saw a few weeks ago. Markets are inverted in crude, lumber, grains, etc. Demand was pulled forward and peak demand has been reached. It is just a matter of time before the correction gets the entire commodity complex. It may take time just as it did from 2007 until the end of the summer in 2008. However, markets move swifter now and have wider trading limits meaning you can be out $100-$200 or more in a week or less.
I would be prepared for one or two limit moves before the month is over. | |
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Something is amiss...
