illinifarmer1 - 10/20/2020 22:16


Direct off a Bing search:
is it what it is. Let the most capable candidate win.

Last week, we noted that it was about two weeks before Election Day in 2016 that Hillary Clinton started to lose her national polling lead, as then-candidate Donald Trump staged a late comeback to shrink Clinton's national polling lead to about 3% on Election Day — a figure that was very close to Clinton's final national popular vote margin of +2.1%.

National poll margins can tell us a lot about each candidate's chances of winning the Electoral College. We wrote last week, "If polls don't start to move in the president's direction — even slightly — by this time next week, it's time for the Trump campaign to sound all of the alarms, if they haven't already."

Good news for President Trump: The polls have started to slightly move in his direction since last week. Bad news for President Trump: He faces a much bigger deficit than he did in 2016, and will need even more movement over the next two weeks.