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Central Missouri | Whichever one that your personalit6 works best with. Some people can day trade 5 minute charts and be successful others daily, others can just use the long term trends off the weekly. It is whatever you get comfy with and works for you.
As to nearby daily or the nov, I have found that the nearby is a good indication of fair value today. New crop reflects that reality plus the uncertainty of production risk and future demand.
For example, look at the recent highs from the August bean chart which is off the board now. The August contract continued to make new highs while the nov didn’t. It cause macd divergence on the macd vs price in the August but not the new crop because the new crop is reflecting the expectation of a big crop in a window when the seasonal point down.
You gotta put the time in and you will come to a conclusion yourself. Maybe none of them fit your personality. Once I quit paying much attention to the usda and quit listening to the daily market chatter and started focusing on what price was telling me the price picture got a lot clearer.
I could be completely wrong in my above analysis, but note that I have a complete analysis of what I expect the bean market to do for the next 9 months. If the market tells me I’m wrong I will reanalyze and adjust. I try to do it all with limited financial risk. | |
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