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Central Missouri | So how do you use this to project price. One of Andrews rules is that price goes to the median line 80% of the time but when it doesn’t it makes a larger move in the opposite direction. In my previous soybean post I showed where price didn’t reach the median line. That move was around 95 cents on the nearby continuous chart. So price should move more than that in the opposite direction. I used the macd cross and macd divergence to show that price was probably done going up.
Then I thought if it’s done going up that the upsloping fork is probably not going to stay in control. I then looked for a Schiff or modified Schiff an$ lo and behold it fit to perfection. Then I used Andrews mini median line technique that I learned in Gordon degroos course to get short.as long as the macd stays short and price doesn’t violate the uml of the modified schiff I’m in good shape.
So price should move down more than its last leg up of 95 cents. That will take us to new contract lows, demoralize all farmers and board longs and at that point I expect China to be buying in 1mmt lots. It will eventually be considered the next great grain robbery but will provide us an opportunity of a lifetime if it all plays out like that.
If this does all play out the next move will be to try and pick the lows within 15 cents so I can keep the risk down.
With all that said it may not rain any more in August in the corn belt and prices turn and go higher ahead of the scenario I just outlined. You never know you can just be very selective and try to put the odds in your favor.
Edited by ehoff 8/6/2020 05:43
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Fork Charts
