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North Central Illinois | The month of August is an important one for row crops in the Midwest. A hot and dry August could still have the same net affect that 2010 weather had on the crop. That is about where the similarities end comparing 2010 to 2020. I would caution you against getting too bulled up by charts and graphs that almost certainly make your case. I have seen more than one guy on this board that did good honest work and spent countless hours digging up material to support his position only to have it not pan out in the end. I'm not saying you are wrong but be careful and keep an open mind. |
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Pierce county WI | I'm pointing out similarities and what can happen. This is a moving target. I'm not saying $5, but to simply say it's all over just isn't true. It's still interesting. |
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S Illinois | So the question is when do you change your outlook? The first big domino in the 2010/2020 comparison was a miss:June stock reports were opposites of each other. When the Aug supply and demand report comes, July weather summaries, Aug weather forecasts, Sept 1 stock, price action that is beginning to deviate from the analog year? Will you be patient until the Jan crop report? Just wondering what data point you are keying in on for verification or re-evaluation of this comparison.
You may also want to delve into the 2016 crop and that price action. That will become more pertinent as we go along. |
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Pierce county WI | You are so focused that the 2 years have nothing in common, that you have blinders on. If ke$ha had a number one song again and the coen brothers redid rooster cogburn would you think it was similar? I will be watching the weather going forward. Hot and dry August? Change in the quarterly stocks? Exports stay strong? Those are all things I'm going to look at. There are areas that are abnormally wet this year too, maybe it's not Iowa, but se Nebraska for example. This thing is not over yet. |
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| looks dry but way cooler |
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S Illinois | Don’t twist this into what I am comparing. You bring up 2010. I am simply pointing out how quick those comparisons fall apart. And hence why some rip roaring price increase into fall isn’t going to occur. Hence no need for a 2010 chart comparison. It’s fine and I would tend to agree we don’t see much weakness at we get closer to $3 but $4 isn’t in the cards either. |
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Pierce county WI | The weather has been hard to pin down this year. It has been an above average heat summer. Maybe it finishes good, maybe it doesn't. I sure wouldn't ever say never at $4. It all depends on demand, world wide production. If the la Nina sets up, that doesn't help south American production. |
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Wow, looks kinda familiar
