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Saronville NE | Thoughts of more beans. If this thing lasts say another 120 days. Oil stays low, E plants shutting down. Corn won't be worth jack. Haven't been able to contract at a profit yet, and looking like our normal window for that won't work this year either. So thoughts of more beans, borrow less operating, less of a kiss locked in etc to live another year. Is this nuts? Normally am 80% + corn. Thinking more like 50-60% this year. Idk,. Thinking of changing gears? Anyone else? |
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David Loberg Northeast Nebraska | Not there yet. Beans rally another $0.20 and corn stays the same, then going to start looking real hard at it. We're normally 80%+ corn, last year we were 100% corn other than alfalfa. |
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| Sticking with 50/50. Surely the corn carryover from 2019 will be adjusted down? |
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| You guys plant the beans and I'll stick with corn |
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Central Iowa | If the ethanol plants in the Dakotas go no-bid on corn before planters roll there might be a lot of Dakota farmers thinking the same thing. I have a feeling the corn acreage number will be pretty manageable by the time this thing is over. |
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Grandpa calls it God's country, NEIA | +1 on corn. Let's be real, neither one of them pencil well. It takes 60 bushel beans at these prices to come close to penciling. And at least here the last handful of years corn yields have been consistant. I think people will roll the dice with corn. |
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Illinois | Trapshooter1 - 3/25/2020 19:46
+1 on corn. Let's be real, neither one of them pencil well. It takes 60 bushel beans at these prices to come close to penciling. And at least here the last handful of years corn yields have been consistant. I think people will roll the dice with corn.
It takes 70 bushel beans or a value added contract |
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ottertail co mn | Trapshooter1 - 3/25/2020 19:46
+1 on corn. Let's be real, neither one of them pencil well. It takes 60 bushel beans at these prices to come close to penciling. And at least here the last handful of years corn yields have been consistant. I think people will roll the dice with corn.
I thought most of Iowa and Illinois were almost guaranteed 70 plus bushel? Maybe it was coffee told...
I am not trying to be a donkey , just wondering
Thanks |
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SC WI | It is a topic every spring. I am going to stick with my rotation, won’t hit a home run, but should be around to farm next year. |
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Ludington/Manistee MI area | Excalibur - 3/25/2020 20:59
It is a topic every spring. I am going to stick with my rotation, won’t hit a home run, but should be around to farm next year.
Gotta love guys out smarting the markets. |
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NC South Dakota | If you contract ahead it is very possible, Something I have learned, forward contracting has been my most profitable grain sold BY FAR.
Local coop will let u roll it to next year without a penalty.... silly not to take advantage of it. |
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Grandpa calls it God's country, NEIA | dittfarms - 3/25/2020 19:55
Trapshooter1 - 3/25/2020 19:46
+1 on corn. Let's be real, neither one of them pencil well. It takes 60 bushel beans at these prices to come close to penciling. And at least here the last handful of years corn yields have been consistant. I think people will roll the dice with corn.
I thought most of Iowa and Illinois were almost guaranteed 70 plus bushel? Maybe it was coffee told...
I am not trying to be a donkey , just wondering
Thanks
We can raise good bean yields here, but the last how many years have been wet. And beans just seem to struggle. Corn on the other hand has been flourishing. |
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God's Country (N.C. Ia) | Are we talking hta’s? I thought rolling between years (or is it crop years?) was illegal? I do agree though, that the forward sales have really worked well the last several years.
Edited by steincowboy 3/25/2020 20:37
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Cambridge, southwestern Nebraska | Good time to rotate out. I’m also concerned about the ethanol plants being around later summer and fall.
Edited by swne 3/25/2020 20:45
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Central MN | Planting more early soybeans and hopefully harvest in September and plant more hybrid rye as I have some left over so I plant that. I need the straw anyway. |
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SW Minnesota | If I have a choice between losing $50 an acre on corn or beans, I’m picking corn everyday. |
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CIL | Lotta fall gas got put on here. Decision is made for many.... |
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Saronville NE | At least if you lose $50 on beans you save a third of that $50 on nitrogen next year. |
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Saronville NE | I quess I don't feel I'm trying to outsmart the market, I'm trying to find what will lose the least amount of money if things stay this way.
Big picture if this thing doesn't turn around in 4-5 months it will take years to get out of it imo. In our area if e plants close, I have no clue where corn will go, I'd guess 75% of corn in this area goes to e plants. I have 4 within 35 miles. It is a legitimate concern.
70+ bu beans are fairly normal here. So is 230-240 corn. Presently corn would be a $88 loss with local fall bids, beans be $49 loss. It's going to have to take something major to gain 50 cents in corn imo. And I know banker says my BE is a good 25 cents under a lot he has seen, so that tells another whole story. |
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NC South Dakota | Yes HTA..... Not a Marketing expert here...... |
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north west arkansas | Doubt us in the south have much of a choice to have any corn with the wet weather. Hard to say if anything will be worth anything come fall. |
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Cambridge, southwestern Nebraska | Kind of what I’m thinking. Set yourself up for better potential a year from now. |
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Southern IA | Throw in a $100 per acre mfp and insurance payments and everyone will be able to upgrade equipment and run up cash rents again this fall and play again next year. |
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Mn | I feel like I should switch to beans. And I could. But probably won’t. |
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West Central Iowa | "Haven't been able to contract at a profit yet" ????? Are you serious? A quick look back at CZ 2020 Futures shows you had 26 months of CZ 2020 futures over 4.00 and also 30 days of CZ 2020 futures over 4.20 to get sold/hedged. |
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Saronville NE | Take 45 cent basis off that 4.00. And use cash numbers. Another whole ballgame
All my yellow corn has To go to town at fall this yr due to bins-all being filled with white corn . So is part of issue. Got good basis locked in on white that will be profitable but yellow not so much so why I'm thinking more beans.
E plant here don't let you contract 26 months out so quess I'm outa your game.
Edited by ahay68979 3/25/2020 23:06
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Glasgow, Ky | Even better than trying to outguess the markets is outguessing the weather. Do you feel lucky? |
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| Dung beetle, what hybrid are ya planting? |
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Chebanse, IL..... | Guaranteed by who?
I don't know about Iowa, but in NE IL it is possible to grow 70 bu beans. But, 5 year whole farm averages will probably be 60 or less. I'm not speaking for everyone, just talking locally (NE IL).
Following is from IL Soybean Assn. They say 54 bu/A in IL:
ILLINOIS AGAIN LEADS NATION IN SOYBEAN PRODUCTION IN 201901.10.20 Press Release FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Illinois Again Leads Nation in Soybean Production in 2019 BLOOMINGTON, ILL – January 10, 2020 – Illinois continues to top the annual crop production report estimate for soybean production, according to 2019 USDA estimates. Despite a tough growing season for most of the Midwest, Illinois farmers consistently produced strong soybean yields, all while remaining committed to stewardship and efficient crop management. Illinois soybean farmers raised 532.4 million bushels of soybeans in 2019 on 9.86 million harvested acres with an average yield of 54 bushels per acre. Iowa ranked second in production with 501.6 million bushels raised on 9.120 million acres. |
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Central MN | I think it’s Bono. I got some from a buddy of mine.
Edited by Dungbeetle 3/26/2020 07:31
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| Lot less crop to handle also. |
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SW Minnesota | I’m pretty salty towards beans after trying to harvest them the last couple years. The whole jack around until 2pm and cut till 2-4 am isn’t my thing. |
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Nebraska, The land of corn and cattle | Exactly! Some guys don't get that the E plants here are our only real market, and they wont contract out that far, 12 months for ours.
Could play the board but Im not comfortable with that, I like dealing in physical things. |
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Nebraska | Same thoughts here. Have been 100% corn last 2 years, might not be a bad time to grow some soybeans. Corn is a lot of inputs, and would be nice to have some soybeans to haul instead of all the bushels of corn to handle. And here in NE, the end market on 75% of bushels are the E plants. Will be interesting to watch. Glad I don't have my N on actually so it leaves the door open... |
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| The ones who do will out-compete you. Forward sales have been the best for the last 5 years, and the forward sellers have gross incomes way above those afraid to forward contract. |
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Saronville NE | Forward contracting and playing the board are 2 different things imo. I'm not afraid to forward contract that's how I sell 75% of our grain. I'll lock basis in also. But I'm not comfortable with outs, calls, options etc, Everytime I've tried it it has cost me money cause don't get in and out at right times I guess. That's a whole different game then just forward contracting a cash sale and yes the Eplants do not let you sell out 18-26 months. Most bids are within 6-9 months at most. |
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NW KS/ SC ID | If my hailed out 2019 wheat volunteer keeps looking better than the planted wheat, it will get sprayed for weeds and raised for a crop instead of burned down for corn... lol Cant beat the cost... |
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More beans instead of corn
