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Debt and deflation
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zenfarm
Posted 7/17/2009 09:45 (#778736 - in reply to #778702)
Subject: Re: Debt and deflation


South central kansas



  As brad Setser points out, the problem is not demand for US gov't bills and notes, but the stunning decline in worldwide demand for goods and services, and like him, I believe Inflation , much less Hyper inflation, is not in the cards any time soon.

 

 

The core problem in the global economy is a shortage of demand for goods, not a shortfall in demand for safe government bonds

The collapse in global trade recently has been absolutely stunning. Exports are down over 20% in a host of Asian economies. China is actually doing comparatively well. Its exports so far have fallen less than Korea’s exports, Taiwan’s exports and Japan’s exports. Global output is falling.

Treasury yields have moved up a bit recently. But they remain well below their levels in say last September. The fact that yields have fallen even as the amount of bonds the G-7 countries are trying to sell into the market has soared suggests that there has been a large increase in demand for government bonds.

This could change, of course. But right now the global data suggests a sharp fall in output – not a sharp fall in demand for bonds or a rise in the risk of inflation. More demand for the world’s goods should be welcomed.

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