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Surplus wheat Strawman.. Wheat FLOUR imports.. counted as US Wht Carryover?!?
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JonSCKs
Posted 3/20/2019 08:41 (#7390639 - in reply to #7390626)
Subject: Wheat imports spiked on the demise of the Canadian Central desk.


Wheat imports spiked on a combination of things..

a) higher prices
b) the demise of the Canadian Wheat Board
c) the ABCD's moving in to fill that void..
d) cheap freight
e) etc..

Freight is no longer cheap.. and in some cases.. getting across a river may be a challenge now.. with reports of shortlines washed out in Nebraska.. and some mainlines needing work.

We live on a BNSF used to be a major line.. but not so much anymore.. however since the flooding in Nebraska.. they have been ramming the trains through here.. so... something is up.. up north.

plus the demand for oil trains.. means that grain has to compete for tracks.. and power.. and crews.. so not as easy as just ordering another load.

Nitrogen was too high anyway.. guys are dialing it down.. and maybe not gonna plant as much corn as the market thinks.. 

Imported Urea is much cheaper.

plus some stories of Wheat Graze out now.. skip it.. just graze it off..  One outfit is supposedly gonna graze 20,000 acres vs harvest it..

Still I don't get how you can call "Imported WHEAT FLOUR" or "Imported Wheat Products".. "Wheat" on the US Carry over..

it's only 40 million bushels.. but still..  ???

The Stocks report right there is gonna be 40 million bushels lower than expectations.. plus they have to correct for all the optimistic earlier guesses on production..

in short we DON'T have as much Wheat in Carryover as the Short funds think..



Edited by JonSCKs 3/20/2019 08:50
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