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WYDave
Posted 12/22/2018 18:17 (#7189892 - in reply to #7189162)
Subject: RE: People are selling because they fear the future


Wyoming

This market has been far too reactive to exogenous events that have little to nothing in the way of long-term effect on stock prices. Much of these whipsaw "react to events" is actually now driven by AI programs doing natural language processing that scan news headlines.

An example: Remember the night that Trump won the election? The DJIA futures went down 700 points in minutes. Paul Krugman was saying that a "first order approximation" of "when the market would recover" was "never." 

The futures markets were turned around by the opening of the next morning. Since 2015 or so, the market has been placing more and more AI NLP systems into the mix, scanning headlines and political news feeds for market-moving phrases. The result has been increasing "whip" in the markets. This has become the "new-new normal." The more the punks on Wall Street add their AI and other computer systems to the mix, the more absurd the whips on the markets become. Another example was the flash-crash of 2010. A bunch of automated market-depth systems drove stock prices down to literal pennies before humans stepped in and said "This is stupid. Shut down these infernal systems and let's sort this out."

But since this September, the market has been watching the Fed more than anything. The market has a saying: "Don't fight the Fed." The Fed wants to be very "hawkish" about inflation, and the Fed's antique models say "we're worrying about inflation, so raise interest rates."  The Fed is proving to be somewhat inflexible in the face of new developments in markets and economies that aren't part of their models for inflation, and so the Fed appears to be plodding ahead, mindless of what is happening in markets.

When I say "markets," I don't mean only the stock or bond markets. I subscribe to a data service, "Bespoke," and they deliver all manner of actionable market data/intel/analysis. One of their charts that really caught my eye in the last couple of weeks was the National Ass'n of Home Builders Market Sentiment "60 day rate of change." I can't reproduce Bespoke's data/charts here, but I can point you to someone who has permission to duplicate Bespoke's charts:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4228872-housing-keeps-getting-worse

See that -12 reading? That's a very rapid decline in sentiment. You can go to the next page of that article and see more Bespoke charts. 

I get paid nothing for mentioning Bespoke - I'm not plugging it so much as saying "this is where I get a lot of data and information concentrated into a small amount of time for making actionable moves in the markets..." 

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