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Update from western Canada
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Alberta Farmer
Posted 9/22/2018 11:39 (#7002502)
Subject: Update from western Canada



West Central Alberta Coldest, wettest edge

Haven't seen much about western Canada on here lately, so I'll offer what I know.

First marketing.  We are seeing some small benefits from the tariffs, China has been importing barley apparently as a replacement for soymeal, combined with very tight stocks and lower yields, prices are very good.  Canola has been selling off along with soybeans lately, although it did seem to march to it's own beat most of the spring and summer defying the drop in soybeans.  Then lost almost $2 per bushel in short order.  China has listed canola meal as a potential replacement for soymeal, will see if that translates into better prices here or not.  Feed wheat is worth almost as much as milling wheat, with prices higher than recent memory.  Pulse prices are poor thanks in part to Indian tariffs.

But the bigger story is the weather.  Large areas of western Canada endured varying degrees of drought most of the growing season, with my area is central Alberta being almost record dry.  That has now been followed by cold, wet and snow in most northern and western regions.  Many of these areas had most or all of the crops still out.  This is nearly unprecedented, and the forecast just doesn't show much cause for optimism yet.  There is widespread frost damage, crops flattened by snow, and some questioning if there is enough heat left in the season to melt this much snow and dry things up enough to still get it all harvested.  Pictures going around of heavy wet snow a foot or deeper.  We woke up to white for the third time this morning, nearly 6".  

So far, the market seems unwilling to acknowledge the scope of the disasterous weather this fall.  And it is still possible that all crop is salvaged, but the probability is dropping by the day, the frost damage is obviously not going away.  

The jury is still out on how much damage the drought caused.  Anecdotal reports sound a lot worse than the official estimates, with some isolated areas pulling off near miracles with perfectly timed showers.  Reports of half of usual yields are widespread.  We also had record heat off and on, which did a lot of damage to crops like canola.  The worst damage was to hay and pasture, feed is in desperately short supply in large areas, with prices reflecting that, and massive numbers of bred/cull cows scheduled to come to market this fall.  Hay yields of 1/4 to 1/2 of normal locally.  

In spite of the hot dry growing season, many areas are still late due to widespread forest fire smoke this summer and early fall.  It was so thick in places that mid day looked like night, while this did alleviate the damage from the extreme heat and dry(but mostly after the damage was already done), it also delayed maturity drastically.  

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