| dpilot83 - 8/6/2018 09:15
Thanks for all of the effort there JP. I have read it several times and will do so several more times as I get time.
Interesting how you phrased it in a way that takes the voodoo connotation out of it. You basically said, "If a trend is to continue, you need lower lows and lower highs. If you're not getting those things, the trend either is changing or is trying to change"
You also said, again not in so many words, "We can have a pretty massive upward trend that is still a part of a larger bearish trend due to the size of these formations".
It's going to be tough to keep our heads screwed on straight and not be looking for $10 corn when it finally breaks the $5.20 sellers.
Hi Pilot,
Yep. WE make it too darned difficult as producers - and certainly chartists as well. If we know that price made a HL, we know that price should make a Higher high. Not if we get a planting carrot rally, not if China comes to the table, not if we plant less acres, that's the job of that swing..period.
Range extension in these contexts very well will be nothing more than a larger degree correction in a bear market. Any rally that does not make new highs in either market will be a lower high and its job is a lower low. AND if you draw a pitchfork on that pivot what direction will it be pointing? DOWN. So the probable path of price would be down and we have a high degree of certainty where it's going - 80% to the ML. None of us wants to go there, but the only choice we have in regards to that is how much risk do you want to carry.
Adding in more complexities, but if you think way back pilot, you and I had a discussion privately about this sort of thing in wheat years ago. Second level sellers backed by a zoom zone.....And what is 5.20 is in corn? And when you look at the most recent bean chart, where did beans run into trouble......Yep. Context is key with every thing in price. If we are going to go to 8 in corn, you gotta get by those guys, and we already know what a failure to reach the ML at better than 6 would mean.
Take Care
Edited by J P 8/6/2018 09:48
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Back to the basics: Market Structure
