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| You need to be a little careful because some of these fellows aren't in the mood for josh'n right now.
But if it's a serious question. We don't yet have this weeks Commitment of Traders but we do last week's COT for soybeans and it shows that the commercial short "old" category actually lost significant numbers, net negative. Why is that important, because whenever producers sell, the buyer, usually brokers, originators etc. sell a hedge against the price of grain dropping. An increase in the commercial short number signifies an increase in farmer selling, a decline in that number indicates producers stopped selling.
If last week is any indication of this week, there was no tin can harvest, quite the contrary.
Furthermore, there was only a modest increase in the commercial short "other" category which indicates relatively little selling of new crop soybeans.
Can rain cause the market to drop? Yes, but usually that only happens if there was already significant questions about the condition of the crop. There really hasn't been any serious concern about the soybean crop such that a little rain would change that. I think you can discount rain as a reason for the market.
This really only leaves you one answer, the eminent loss of 25% of our soybean market due to Chinese tariffs.
Sorry if the truth hurts. | |
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Bear market caused by?
