I'm not a weatherman.. nor do I play one on tv.

The only thing I think I know about the weather.. is that if you Think you have it figured out.. it's gonna change.

We don't know if the ENSO IS the driver.. It sure appears to have played a role.. however MOST of the models that project it's strength have been..  unreliable.  My NWS guy says that when one driver moves to the lead and you think.. you know what's coming next.. Ma Nature will throw a curve ball.. and it's possible that you get entirely the OPPOSITE of what was expected..

.. so you just never truely know for sure.

East of me it has rained.. their dryland wheat is back on track.

We got an inch a week ago.. and the crop doesn't even look like the same.. HOWEVER, we do not know for how long it can hold on SINCE it does not have what it needs to mature AND we Do Not know for sure what is Coming.. It's Spring.. that's good.. should be wet.. AND it's raining now.. not very far away.. So it FEELS like the Lid has been removed.. or Shrunk at least.. However..

ON the OTHER HAND.. going west.. golly it's still bad.. and they have not had relief.  Showers are hard to come by.. and hence hard to start before the fronts pass over us..

So..???

I believe we've made great strides.. in forecasting.. but we probably still got a ways to go.

Just like picking the final four.. Two #1's have made it AS PREDICTED.. the other two have been bested by a #3 as well as a #11



Who predicted that?



And Frankly.. I would think that picking the Final Four.. would be easier than predicting the weather.


but then again.. I'm not a weatherman.

fwiw.