South Central Iowa | Centuryfarm - 1/28/2018 08:29
Those forks are too short term to be valid.
Short term forks are very valid. I would argue they are far more useful too. Firstly, they actually validate and fulfill obligations in a usable timescale; days and weeks instead of years. Second, the positioning of their C is much easier. Long-term forks fail all the time. They fail because the market hasn't developed enough to confirm the C is in the correct position. It can take years. That brings up reason three; short-term forks are more reliable and fill more often. Honestly, I think the short-term is where the forks shine; their angular shape is well suited for swings. I don't think much of them, or many tools, for long-term outlook; at least as far as our ag markets are concerned.
I'll also add: I don't like modifiers on the forks. I like them in their pure state as Andrew's made them and nothing more. People add modifiers to explain why they fail and alter it to fit. It's really just glossing over that the tool, like all others, fails from time to time. Those failures, as it seems to me, increase the more someone expects out of the tool; i.e. wanting it to tell me where price will be in two years instead of two weeks.
I agree with you though about $9.04. I don't think we are capable of taking it out until our crop is determined.
Here are some of those very valid forks just from soybeans recently. The green fork is the same as the validated ascending fork above, but with the other optional anchor.
Edited by Conan the Farmer 1/28/2018 11:35
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Soybean Charts
