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Cognitive confirmation bias!
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sbark
Posted 10/30/2017 22:52 (#6336387 - in reply to #6333337)
Subject: add in "recency bias"


What is Recency Bias?

If you've been on this email list for awhile you've likely heard me talk about it before, but here is good definition of it.

"The recency bias is pretty simple. Because it’s easier, we’re inclined to use our recent experience as the baseline for what will happen in the future. In many situations, this bias works just fine, but when it comes to investing and money it can cause problems.
When we’re watching a bull market run along, it’s understandable that people forget about the cycles where it didn’t. As far as recent memory tells us, the market should keep going up, so we keep buying, and then it doesn’t. And unless we’ve prepared for that moment, we’re shocked and wondered how we missed the bubble.
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