I have "paid too much" for almost every piece of ground that I purchased, but today I wouldn't sell any of it for more than double.  I figure if I am going to farm it long term it almost doesn't matter what I paid for it within reason (my reasons).  I kind of think that the price of the ground has less importance with the equation than my individual financial health, proximity, stage of my farming career, succession plan, comfort level, etc.  I will say that you are correct in saying that those who paid too much for their land aren't farming any more, any more than they can handle that is.