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How much of the run-up in the stock market....
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FormerFarmer/NowBank
Posted 10/20/2017 10:40 (#6317723 - in reply to #6317294)
Subject: RE: How much of the run-up in the stock market....


iseedit - 10/20/2017 05:48

1234 - 10/19/2017 19:32 How much of the run-up in the stock market is predicated on the idea that the anticipated big changes in the tax treatments will let investors keep more of their gains. That's to say, if investors wait and the tax code changes they stand to win big. As the consequence there is artificial pressure to keep the money where it is for the time being that will vanish if & when either the tax code changes or the investors give up waiting. The thing is, we all know that at this particular time, near the top of the market, there is more opportunity to make money selling stocks as buying stocks. At some point the speculators will start the stampede and run with it. And nobody in their right mind will want to get in front of it when the stampede starts. 

The thing to consider is this - there are Hundreds of millions of dollars every month that is NEW money that needs a home, every month . . . .  . 401k type monies. That is the single most influence that drives the stock market. Where would the market be today, if it wasn't for all that new money ?

 



I was told that same thing 10+ years ago. With most all government entities and private businesses switching from traditional pension plans to 401K and 403B plans, there is too much money going into the market each month. Also, as long as interest rates are kept low, CD's under 2%, people will continue putting money in the market. If interest rates go up 2-3% and CD's get over 4%, money will go back into CD's and the market will then struggle. I am less than 10 years from retirement (I Hope) and will soon be pulling back from the market and going to less risky investments. Might lose some gains in the short term but will not lose as much if and when the market does correct, and it will have a sharp correction, just can't say when it will happen.
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