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NW Indiana | I think you would acknowledge we have no way of knowing next years yield correct? We could easily vary 5% from trend. Lets call that 8.5 bushels on corn. So we could be anywhere from 180 down to 163. Those two extremes mean a lot to price, to say it doesn't is foolish. To claim a chart can predict which is coming is also foolish. I will acknowledge that if I told you which was coming you could likely point out a price to target and be very accurate. My thoughts are if this soybean yield lands near the usda we are likely continue in a side ways market. I don't see any reason we would take out the 2017 highs or the lows during the next 8 months unless we get some SA weather help. You said yourself a fork doesn't work well in a sideways market so that statement in itself says a fork doesn't predict price it merely shows the probabilities. I would love to study your method but no matter what will acknowledge that it is just a method to predict possibilities and is not a crystal ball to predict the future. | |
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Is this the new normal for yields?
