Vapor-locked, I like that, I think of it as a self fulfilling prophecy by commercials.  Lots of grain in storage, big carries equals crap basis.  Grain doesn't move, so lot's of grain in storage and crap basis again next year. Reality is there aren't enough wheat farmers with storage of equity to capture the carry themselves so bulk of grain is going to change time at harvest.  Going to take some spec funds with deep pockets to invert the market and force the commercials hands.