AgTalk Home
AgTalk Home
Search Forums | Classifieds (130) | Skins | Language
You are logged in as a guest. ( logon | register )

Implications of 25+ inches of rain on Houston refineries?
View previous thread :: View next thread
   Forums List -> Market TalkMessage format
 
JonSCKs
Posted 8/27/2017 22:20 (#6214173 - in reply to #6213726)
Subject: We disagree.


"it does not share the importance that ethanol does to corn."

ethanol is an expensive product to produce.. roughly $2/ bushel of capacity to build.

biodiesel on the other hand.. we could up bio diesel production tomorrow with the 40% underutilized capacity with the flip of a switch.. so actually I see it the opposite.. higher diesel fuel prices are going to support beans quicker than higher gasoline prices would support corn...

and with beans.. it could happen sooner than later.

I talked with my relatives today who have contacts in Houston.. and quietly.. we're starting to wonder if the damage isn't going to be more substantial than Katrina.. the BILLIONS of dollars of damage from the flooding ALONE will probably eclipse Katrina.

Now as far as energy goes.. it's not a production problem..(I'm thinking of the damaged rigs left in the gulf after Rita..) but there will be some damage to the plants.. the problem with Katrina was that the workers were displaced.. that probably will not be as big of a problem as they will probably be able to find lodgeing while ripping all the drywall out of their homes.. and as refineries shut down.. crude will back up..  but until they get things FULLY back online.. weeks.. months.. I'd be real surprised if it's only days.. but who knows?

It's possible that in 6 months gasoline/diesel is actually cheaper from the backlog of cheap crude.. coupled with restored operations at the refinieries..???  In THAT regard it's NOT as bad as Katrina.. but destroying a LARGE CHUNK of the housing in HOUSTON will COST MAJOR MULTIPLES of dinky New Orleans in comparison that Katrina did... it's just that RITA did REAL DAMAGE to the rigs in the gulf.. and I haven't heard that THAT is the case this time...

fwiw.. I could be wrong.

but yal people underestimate the economic's of biodiesel.. it doesn't work.. until it does.. then you have to drive bean costs higher to shut it off.

Later.

edit add:  okay let me temper this a bit.. everyone thinks it takes subsidy to run biodiesel.. and that's why we're either ramping up OR shutting down all the time in bio diesel.. diesel is up.. last I looked $.03.. and it's what..?  7.3 lbs of modified bean oil.. (with the glycerine removed from it..)  ( https://www.uaex.edu/publications/PDF/FSA-1050.pdf )

So that's only 0.0041 per lbs improvement.  Got a ways to go..

But when you Tripled Crude Oil..  a few years ago.. then Bean Oil as a diesel substitute was gonna work unless the price rose to take it out of the tank... which is what happened.

probably NOT the story that we are looking at today.. but closer today than pre Harvey.. how far it goes...???



Edited by JonSCKs 8/27/2017 22:44
Top of the page Bottom of the page


Jump to forum :
Search this forum
Printer friendly version
E-mail a link to this thread

(Delete cookies)