SE ND | ImTheBoss - 8/23/2017 06:03
Thanks for your thoughtful reply.
My post was a bit out of frustration and wrongly so. I was looking for some bullish opinions this summer and found them here. I still made some sales but not nearly as many as each of the past 5 years.
Sub-$3 cash corn off the combine won't be fun if something doesn't change.
I had a strong feeling that too many were looking at $4.50 corn as the magic number yet I ignored myself.
I've tried to keep it simple and it's worked. I've sold less than 1% of my corn production over the last 5 years at less than $3.50 cash but that streak is now coming to a screeching stop. (Thank goodness I went all in on the good corn basis we saw in our area last fall)
I'll just stick to my seasonal based sales and keep it simple. Thanks for your level-headed reply.
I'm right there with you, Boss. So are many others, too. This is a rough time for my farm and other young guys' also. Not saying it's just the young ones that are feeling the pain, but for us it's not only low prices but a poor crop to boot. Not sure how it'll finish, but this was looking to be my poorest crop since I started in 04. There is stress all over the AG industry right now. I see it and hear it all the time.
Our bullishness is due to the context of price. Like I said before, that hasn't changed even with this hard drop.
It has been mentioned here before, but as hard as it is to seem to get a rally to sell, when it happens we best be on our toes. When this pullback ends and price resumes it's downward grind, things will get even harder. And that is with today's interest rates. You talked about some of the better farmers being able to sell the rallies. I've noticed that some guys/gals can naturally do it, while most of us don't realize what is happening. For someone like me, I need a chart to be able to project an area with a probability to sell.
One last thing, your seasonals probably work well most of the time. And even this year that time frame would have given you the best price thus far. As mentioned by others, the seasonals seem to be off this year. It feels hopeless, but that is exactly what is needed for a major pivot. There is a turn coming down here, IMHO.
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Who's built a hugely successful farm on the back of technical analysis?
