SE ND | ImTheBoss - 8/23/2017 02:29
I know of zero.
I do know of a few very successful growers in my area who simply sell a crap ton of bushels on rallies and are awfully good growers on top of that. Zero charts. Simply cash flow-based marketing with a solid grasp of merchandising.
Drain tile + grain storage + long on land (not equipment) + short on top-end cash rent = the path to success as I see it
I drove through Des Moines last weekend. There's a massive house on the north side of town on a golf course. I'm guessing that's Mr. Andrews house (of Andrews Fork fame)??
Edit: A couple of these farms started with very little family "old money" and have built $20+ million of equity
Not sure how wealthy Andrews ended up being, but I know Babson (who worked closely with forks and traded energy fluctuations) acquired something like $50 million over 60 years ago.
The older I get the more I see the acquisition of wealth as a true gift. Money management, risk levels, self control, and opportunity are some necessities to name just a few.
I get what you're saying. TA is very very challenging. Anyone who is any good at it has poured countless hours into it, without a guaranteed benefit at the end. Is it there to be learned... absolutely. We ourselves are the problem. Take Dec corn, trend is down and has been for years. Price rallied higher up to the area of last sellers and to a line that sellers had shown to be at previously. The pivot was made and we could draw a downsloping fork with high probabilities that it would be achieved. Personally, I didn't think we'd get to it as it projected a test of the lows (at minimum). Price and the tools didn't lie, they told us the likely path of price. The issue was me. I "expected" a higher low given the formation and horizontal movement in Z.
So here we are today pounding out new lows for Z. What has changed? Well the sellers at 417 are now confirmed and they did what they should have done in making new lows. What about the continuous chart? Nothing has changed on it as price has not gone on to make new lows and very likely will not do so. The formation and projections that were mentioned months ago haven't changed other than the timing at which they are achieved (slope). The continuous controls the others so I fully expect them to follow along.
As for building a farm off trading I know of nobody that has. Including myself. The farm started first and TA has come about from a desire to become a better marketer.
The stuff that myself and others post regarding analysis comes at no cost to others. We pour our time into it for nothing more than to educate.
I'm far from perfect but I know my motives. I'm a farmer myself and I will hopefully be involved in farming till I die. Not only do I want to see my farm become more profitable, but also others as well.
I used to think that most everyone would love to learn more about what is shown by many here that post their different tools and knowledge. But I can see that few want to put in the effort it takes. They'd rather put down those who try and fail at times, than to try at all.
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Who's built a hugely successful farm on the back of technical analysis?
