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Which end user could afford to pay more?
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midwest
Posted 7/2/2017 14:05 (#6101775 - in reply to #6058195)
Subject: RE: The explanation.....



jpartner - 6/6/2017 22:23

IN555 - 6/6/2017 18:23 But in essence isn't what I'm saying is the stored energy?

No.  The energy stored was stored from August 2012 to the recent lows last fall around 303.  Assuming that is the low, anything that happens after that is likely not storing energy but is releasing it.   Think of it his way.  You spent 4 years (2012 to September 2016) blowing up a balloon.  It's massive.  It has alot of energy (air) in it.   Anything you do now, only effects how the energy (air) is released.  You pop it with a pin, and it's gone instantaneously (vertical).  You could just let is seep out slowing (a grind).  You could let it out in bursts..(waves).   But at no time will that balloon ever have more energy than is has when you quit filling it.  So that is why I say all this is all irrelevant.  IF we are going to 451, 505, 652 1/2 or any other price, it has already been determined, and not only where we are going is determined already, but how we go has been as well.  Price has a finite amount of stored energy, and it has a trajectory.   And like a boat on motoring on a busy lake that has to deal with the other boats waves, price has to deal with its previous ripples.  And so the path is all determined.  Where we are going, how we are going is already determined.  The problem we have a growers is that we think of this year compared to last. But this formation - if complete has nothing to do with last year.   It's energy would be relative to the move since August 2012 to the lows.  IF the previous years rallies of about a dollar in corn were simply the release of the previous years formation's energy (they were), imagine how much energy is available in the bigger swing?  The pendulum ML sits just over 6.00.  Double the range is 5.80..  Think it can't happen?  Ask the cattle guys how about pendulum swings and how the inconceivable can happen.  And that pendulum ML that seemingly is so far away that we can never reach it, has the same probabilities of being reached as any other one...80%.   And think about how we got to this point in the growing season.   We had a wonderful early spring for alot of the crop growing areas and the popular question is "if" we are gonna rally, what is going to be the catalyst - because there has to be one right....it is not possible that an invisible force could be affecting our growing season right???  Then things went south.  Turned off wet, cold, late snows, freezes, floods, now heat.  Gosh, almost mystical not? 

Take Care



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