A friend called me yesterday to remind me of what our NWS meterologist Aaron Johnson had been saying.. clear back since 2012.. that the long term dryness was going to flip from the Southern plains to the Northern plains..

I blogged about it here.. (amongst many posts..)

December 14th 2014..  ( https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=521778&posts=8&highlight=Weather&highlightmode=1#M4261732 )

This is refering to a meeting held in the spring of 2012...

"Johnson took all the air out of the room two years ago when he opened his presentation with this statement..

"You guys.. unless you are really young.. have probably lived through the Wettest part of the cycle for your lives.  The 1980's were the peak beneficial period of favorable weather for crops. (for the Southern Plains..)  and that will return again.. in about 20 or 30 years.."

That would be "A" above a +PDO and a -AMO.. he thinks we are currently in "D" which is the total opposite with a -PDO and a +AMO.. which  (The graphic is gone.. maybe the CIA buried it?)

The link is gone but this is a weather forecasters blog from Colorado.. which basically lines up with what Johnson was saying..

"Simply put, if the PDO is in a positive or warm phase, there are more frequent and stronger El Nino episodes.  Between 1980 and 2000, the PDO was very positive and thus we experienced more El Nino's and less drought.  Since roughly the year 2000, the PDO has been largely negative.  Thus, we have experienced more La Nina episodes and that has resulted in more drought years.  When I say "we" I am obviously talking about Colorado.  While this isn't the only player in our long range weather patterns, it certainly is influential.  Usually when we have an El Nino, we don't have to worry about drought.  When we have a La Nina episode, our drought concerns increase bigtime.  By following the PDO and it's phase changes, one can determine if we need to have drought thoughts on our mind or not.  

The warm phase of the PDO may also explain why the late 80's and 90's were some of the warmest times on record.  Thus, fueling global warming/climate change talk.  However, if you look back through history a negative PDO  ( cold phase  ) has the opposite impact.  The 1970's were an unusually cool time across the US and this is while the PDO was negative.  Nobody was worried about global warming or climate change at that point...lol.

Right now, the PDO is in a negative or cold phase and the AMO is positive.  If you buy the above graphic, we should be worried about the prospects of drought."

THIS WAS WRITTEN IN 2009.. before the 2011 and 2012 droughts!!  WOW!!   (gulp )

Now Johnson agrees with this.. However, he is looking for the PDO to flip.. going to "C" in the cycle above a +PDO and a +AMO.. some time over the next couple of years.. "maybe by 2016.."  which.. "is going to shift the drought outlook from the Southern Plains to the Northern Plains.. "

...

I'd have to do some more looking but I do remember him saying this..

"Some time by 2016..2017..2018.. the Northern plains are gonna flip to dry.. and stay that way for about a decade."

???

Basically what we went through from about 2010.. to..  2015'ish down here..??

He did say that in 2012..

In the Spring of 2011 the Northern Plains and the upper Missouri River basin flooded.. later that Summer we down here in the Southern plains experienced RECORD heat.. 4 days over 110.. almost 50 over 100 with SIGNIFICANT liquidation of cattler herds and loss of crops..

Is it possible that the AMO/PDO cycle has flipped now with the Southern Plains being relatively cool and wet.. while the Northern Plains frys?

.. guess we'll find out.