In a van, down by the river. | It's not bad on theoretical grounds. Rather, most producers get "triple hosed": 1) they hang on too long and cbot price goes even lower, 2) carry grows even larger which makes rolls hurt more over time, and 3) with the board weak and carry strong basis gets higher than you'd expect. The truly best times for a producer to use basis are in inversion or on the cusp of a face-ripping rally. Good luck timing that. |