I actually have some wheat right on the S side of the RR tracks by that burned area that you can see to the line in the stand where the last storm shower last fall went across. Looks tremendous on the NE corner, the SW side of it finally able to row a few weeks ago.

Man there is everything from dryland rooted in wheat with cattle out on pasture.. to barely emerged.. and wondering if it's going to blow.

Just driving through I thunk that I see...

a) subsoil moisture.. IF you had the surface moisture to establish a stand to grow into the subsoil..
b) but that surface moisture was HIGHLY variable (as you describe..) where emergence was effected by previous tillage practices.. fallow.. and timing of planting.. I assume that what little moisture fell.. guys jumped on that.. day 1 good.. 3 eh.. day ?? not so hot.. and that's all she wrote.. as right across the road it may be all up and good.
c) the January precip is getting most of the rest of it up now.. will it catch the earlier emerged??

Wow it's a puzzle no doubt.. and similar situations over by me.. but more quality of soil related.. vs.. timing and luck more out your way.


"If it was easy.. anyone could do it.."

Who knows after last year.. Ma Nature can bushel it out.. or totally wreck it.. I predict yields somewhere between 5 and 95.. but don't wanna get too specific.. lol.

If it rains.. soon.. maybe better.. same ol samo..