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NW Indiana | So lets take sats bear case that is hard for everyone to like but lets all be open minded. So we are going to have a great growing season and only have 1.5 million of PP or add back the 2 million split evenly. Yields are fantastic with corn coming in at 177 and soybeans again at 52.
So corn 177x84.75 is 15 billion production. With the low prices we will leave demand the same assuming SA had better production the same so ending stocks would raise 415 million to a burdensome 2.770. What price would it take to get demand to 15 billion to maintain ending stocks?? 2.75???
Soybeans 52x87.3 is 4.540 billion production. That would raise ending stocks 431 at current prices or 851 total. So at $8 beans we increase demand 300 million?? Seems fair and that still equates to 550 million ending stocks.
As you can see from all the scenario's there is a lot of possibilities. You can question the numbers all you like but these are fairly realistic numbers imo. So what do you want to market based on?? A drought? Possible great weather? Trend??? I'll let you decide | |
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The numbers......
