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The end of the "80-cent cattle" hysteria?
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Jim
Posted 10/26/2016 14:40 (#5601306 - in reply to #5601148)
Subject: RE: The end of the "80-cent cattle" hysteria?


Driftless SW Wisconsin

5 Head - 10/26/2016 12:39 Weren't you the one telling us how cattle would not drop 2 years ago because the cow man couldn't sell them that cheap. Are you just looking to eat crow? My dad told me a few years ago that someday I would be happy to get $1 for fats. He was right and it did not take long.

As has been discussed here at length, many cowmen in the upper midwest (maybe not range country) need about $750-800 for a 500-550 lb steer to break even. I know that's what I need.

WILL cowmen sell 550 lb calves for less? I guess there are folks who will. And then the USA beef cow supply will resume its slow 60 year downward trend.  I won't.

Nearby November feeders, where the volume is on the CME, are selling right now for  $1.2345/lb  x 550lb = $678.98 which is getting closer to my $750.   At $1.36 we'll hit $750 on a 550 lb calf.

At last Friday's beef feeder cash sale at Bloomington WI they had 1674 head with "550-625 lb" selling for $1.25-1.47. the midpoint of that range is ....by coincidence, no doubt...$1.36

As far as comparisons to pork and chicken as in another reply; a pork chop is not a T-bone. Pork sausage is not the same as a good burger.  When a restaurant in town has beef meat loaf on its noon or evening hot table, you better get there early or its gone. Chicken is almost always still there if you get there later.  I like brats. I like burgers. But they are not interchangeable to most folks I've discussed this with.



Edited by Jim 10/26/2016 14:55
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