Is whoever you are selling to binning it and hoping? If they "hedge" it who are they hedging to? Possibly speculators but likely not all of it.

We always need to remember, there is someone else on the exact opposite side of the trade. I have problems with it being good advice to get rid of all inventory early and using paper to speculate on price. Think of who has the inventory once farmers sell and who drives the futures markets. What need is there for futures prices to rise if all physical demand is met early?

Once inventory is out of farmers hands, farmers no longer have pricing power. No matter how many marketing seminars tell you to get rid of inventory and use paper. Maybe all that expert advice has its bread buttered by someone other than farmers.

What is seen is the prices received. What is not seen is how those early sales (or physical delivery but priced later) affect prices months down the road. That you have to "foresee".

Things like free DP is NOT done for the benefit of the producer. It is to get their hands on inventory so they do not have to drive the price up by bidding the required amount. Once they have the physical grain (to keep production running), why would they ever have to bid the price up?

As Earl Pitts would say, "Wake up America!".

John