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W. Canada | Good advice on adjusting to USD instead of CAD. Makes perfect sense to try and use US HRS values as an indicator as does port prices. That is a pretty simple thing to fix on my sheets, so I will be changing that.
I see what you mean the 100k size, that covers roughly 4 HRS contracts. You start stemming a pretty big margin account at that time already I guess. Something none of us would be used to, as we have never traded the board before. However I try to remind myself that money is coming off my current anyways if I do nothing.
I am not sure on CWRS, so I don't know if I understand you 100%. We are trying some CNHR this year which basically allows the US HRS varieties to be registered and sold in Canada other than feed. Supposedly 120% yield of CWRS, current discount $.22/bu CAD on December contract. Paper makes that look like a no brainer but we will see. I do wonder if hybrid fall rye would work out well. I really don't know what one can expect for yield, but even at 60bu (crop guide suggests 70bu for black soil zone) I can see some opportunities there.
And Maizeing, I see where you are coming from. If I read between the lines discipline and decision making is key here. I remember you writing on here somewhere how farmers should visit a decision making course before attending any marketing seminar. That made me laugh, because it is right. I try and keep that in my mind and be as rational/logical as my brain lets me be. So despite missing most good opportunities, I at least made one NC sale I am happy about today.
Thanks.
I thought I would add... Just to let me speculate on Basis here: Lowest US wheat plantings in 40 years, not an overly high carryout for wheat in Canada either IIRC. I don't have the experience to make a prediction a basis trader would, but the signs aren't exactly against going long the basis. The opportunity to capture some positive movement might be there in my opinion. And for sure the risk that we grow a huge crop and get a record winter, rail movement slows down and smashes local bids is there...
Edited by Hanorob 3/15/2016 22:36
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CWRS Basis
