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The Wall of Bred Hefiers that Never Showed
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garvo
Posted 3/12/2016 14:31 (#5171518 - in reply to #5171483)
Subject: RE: The Wall of Bred Hefiers that Never Showed


western iowa,by Denison
Jim - 3/12/2016 14:00

Q500 - 3/12/2016 12:39

I'm thinking $600 for 5 weights this coming fall.  Depends on weather and politics. 

??????????  

If that's the case you better buy them because there likely won't be many more as cow/calf folks say the heck with this, imho.

Break even for most midwestern cow/calf folks (whether they realize it or not) is at least $900 and more like $975/ weaned calf.

If I were you, I would not hold my breath waiting for those "$600 5 wts".



Jim-if you use futures of 2017 aug-it is trading at $113-using my matrix of 1100#x $113 is $1243 add 100 bushel of corn and a $100 bill-maybe $450 feed cost leaves $793 available funds to secure calves-
That basically is saying and point to $800 for steer calves-I have no doubt in my mind that Q500 will have a lot of calves bought at that price where he is-I watched a guy buy 1,000"s of steer calves last year-he is no longer buying any calves-He is basically out of business-who would have ever thought that $1500-450# steer calves would lose $500 a head!-That puts those calves at $1000 last year to break even-we are starring at lower fat cattle prices ahead not higher
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