Predictions are nothing but speculative guesses at this point.  The big question is when saudi arabia and/or opec will cut, no one knows that. The saudis are already down 100,000 barrels a day from their peak production, and may make a production cut so it doesn't look like they are now in perpetual decline.  Domestic US production is going to begin declining worse, and shale drilling will be slow to recover.  A number of large companies are paying interest only at this point to stay afloat, shale wells decline rapidly and they are having to sell flush production at horrible prices.  Anybody with half a brain will not be inclined to loan them money for renewed drilling with their existing debt.  What income they do make is going to go to pay back interest and hopefully some principle.  Yes there will be wells that have not been completed yet that will be when prices go higher, but will this be able to overcome the downward slope?  Remember some of these companies are looking at a 30% return over the life of the well, that is absolutely terrible.  Cheap interest rates create poor investment.  Just like low interest rates have screwed up land values they have also screwed up the oil and natural gas business.  There are near zero opportunities for someone to get started in oil and gas acquisitions now, 99% of what sells at auction is junk, or brings close to twice what a good price is because all these guys are sitting on a lot of money making 1% interest.  In the last year I have seen a lot of production sold that will never make the initial investment back, particularly natural gas production, not to mention the gas purchasers are turning the screws now to try and pick up an extra buck.

Condensate and natural gas liquids are now included in crude oil production figures, however they are not always interchangeable.  This leads to artificially high crude production figures.

If the US dollar loses value oil price will go up.

Iran could get sanctions put on them again.

I do know this, oil not reaching $70 a barrel for a decade is a virtual impossibility, it would take a severe economic collapse for this to happen.  Odds are good it will be $70 inside of 2 years.  Probably 50ish by the end of this year.  But those are just a guess for a market that has massive manipulation.  Opec could announce a cut tomorrow and oil goes to 50 inside of a month and 75 by the end of the year or higher, these scenarios are incalculable.

The companies that keep lowering the price of oil at which they are profitable are likely lying to keep people from really jumping ship on their bonds and stocks.

Anyone who is selling the maximum amount of oil they can at these prices is a fool, or has to pay debt, it is that simple.  Shut in some wells, slow others way down, particularly new production, for the few wells with no decline keep them going.

Part of what is keeping the surplus of oil up are all the stripper wells that should be shut in.  The problem is the operator owns say less than 5% of the well and makes 3000-4000 a month in operating income.  These operators break all ethics and keeping running wells when they are unprofitable because they still make money and don't care the rest of the working interest holders are losing money. 

Maybe I shouldn't say it, but hey I am not a saint.  Seeing some of these large companies who screwed over everyone they could to get their piece now going bankrupt makes me feel like sometimes there is justice in this life.

Just my semi random thoughts with some ranting thrown in.