Formerly NE North Dakota, now NW MN | Yeah, I donno..... I have to say this whole thing does not make sense to me (which is why I keep posting on it, hoping to finally see the light). If you take Egypts behavior as one entity, it does not make sense; they do not appear to a rational actor. And, not to nitpick you but, it's not that they "want" to buy wheat. They absolutely have to buy wheat. I read in these news articles "we have enough to get to June" and it's written nonchalantly like "yeah everything's fine", but ah, If i'm in the suppression of rebellion and domestic peace affairs department of Egypt's administration, and I read "we have enough wheat to get to June", I'd be taking the walk down the hall to have a chat about telling people we have 4 months supply of food isn't the best P.R. move. I just, really, don't get what's going on there, and maybe some guy really is that crazy over ergot. If that's whats going on, that guy needs to put down his copy of Robin Cook's "Acceptable Risk" and start buying some grain.
As for wheat, I really have no idea what the board's going to do, I could even see it rally, but the basis situation is the worst I've ever seen (first hand) and unless we get some big sales (hopefully to Egypt) I have no idea what's going to improve it. So I could see the argument about a quality crop being bullish as true for the board, but a big crop of any type, I fear, could exacerbate both the basis and the spreads.
Did I mention I hope we sell a pile of wheat to Egypt? |
Wild speculation on Egypt and ergot
