3 week weather out look
In the previous post I conveyed my low confidence in the weather pattern and what was expected during the following several weeks. The confidence is still somewhat shaken.
If you go back in previous posts dating back into the late summer period, I pointed out the wild cards in the weather pattern. Remember, a lot of "experts" were touting that the Godzilla of all El Nino's was going to bring catastrophic weather to the U.S., particularly California. I pointed out that the relatively warm waters (compared to normal) across the north Pacific and off the southwest U.S. coast could have a big impact on the weather pattern. That has certainly been the case, and continues to influence the weather pattern. The Pacific Northwest and western Canada has been pounded this winter by rain and snow. Southern California? Precipitation has been significantly below normal. Across the plains, we were fortunate during the fall and early winter to have a beneficial pattern (from a combination of influences) to bring precipitation. But, since late December, the pattern that benefited the Plains has shifted into the eastern U.S. and not only moved moisture east, it has prevented the Arctic air from making deep intrusions.
I've been pointing out for some time that the pattern should become more active (and colder) from late February into the middle of March (a repeat if you will from earlier in the winter). This simply is NOT happening, yet! Why not? Well, I'm going to continue to blame it on the relatively warm waters (compared to normal) just off the southwest U.S. coast. Look at the temperature anomaly map...
The waters have cooled but I think the combination of the warmer than average water from western Mexico and into the Gulf of Alaska has played and continues to play a part.
Here is the latest satellite image....
During a typical El Nino event the jet stream should be slamming into the southwest U.S. instead of continually sending systems into western Canada and the northwest states. Not this year!
There was a minor system depicted by the x over Oregon this morning (shown on the satellite image). As this moves into the plains it will bring a few showers to the northern plains this weekend and wind to the central and southern plains. It and a second weak system should be enough to dislodge cold air out of Canada and this will head south by the first of the week. At one point it appeared that another upper level system would be strong enough to bring a fair amount of precipitation to a large part of central U.S. and even heavy snow to parts of Kansas and Nebraska (centered on March 1). But, at this point the amplification of the system will be too far east to bring much to at least the high plains. Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Branch...
During the next two to three weeks, the weather does fit the original fall pattern when there should be cold air available along with deepening upper level systems. Some of the longer range computer models have been suggesting that the jet stream across the Pacific will be shifting south and the blocking should be weakening some. This would allow increasing opportunities for wet weather systems across the high plains along with cooler temperatures. My confidence unfortunately remains rather low. I do (with a higher amount of confidence) feel that for the month of March, in general, that precipitation will be at least average, if not above for much of the area.
