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Stock Mkt.. Not Crude.. Not China.. it's Overvalued
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JonSCKs
Posted 1/21/2016 08:53 (#5052548 - in reply to #5052417)
Subject: Not according to the CME..


You have a crop and irrigation system set up for 800 GPM... It's now pumping 400 GPM. But it's still pumping 400 GPM more than dryland, so you don't have a problem right?

Not according to the CME..  "business as usual.."

Coffee shop talk this morning was..

a) ice storm.. looks like tow trucks and repairs shops are gonna be busy..

b) Trump/Palin vs World..  Palin v Clinton..  Lol.. that was a hoot

and c) all the critters out on pasture.

We're starting to get the guestimates for planted acreage next year.. and even some are coming in below 90 myn for corn.. "well.. lower wheat acreage has to go to something.."

and it does.. all those sorghum acres with a fence up and cattle out grazing on it..  I've said that I believe the total amount of acres planted to crops were gonna fall.. which seem to be bearing out..

Farmers planted 318.5 million acres to the 21 major field crops this past year. That's 7.9 million fewer acres than last year.
( https://twitter.com/usda_nass )

With the growth in cow herds.. more acres will have a fence around them.. and more acres will go to raising feed.

That being said.. livestock prices need to stay firm.. I would expect cattle on feed numbers to possibly come in a little lighter.. as they have been out grazing stalks/wheat longer this winter.. aka.. going back to the norm pre commodities boom.

We can make 400 gpm wells work.. just need to lighten up on the populations.. use (in Tara's words..) technology.. and cross our fingers.. maybe go to a little more sorghum.  We probably will not pop the 280 bu yields as much.. but we can still get 180 to 220 if it rains.. 130 if it doesn't..

btw.. What comes after El Nino?

aw it will work out.

later.

ps it only took 30 minutes for the load in front of me.. near the end of the ground pile.. of sorghum to get poked through the gates at the plant yesterday am..  "PEE YEEUUWW".. smelled good also.. I guess the last couple of loads got to find a hog lot somewhere...  flip side.. already partially fermented.. good for a premium eh?

We got to do a better job of filling on farm storage.. and build some more bins for next year.. probably only lost..??? 3%..4%...5%.. on the pile..  Golly what's gonna happen when we get a wet fall one of these years...???  30%..40%..50% falls over out in the field before we get it in... that's what.

Anywho.. ethanol plant said they were still positive on margins.. going 115% of capacity.. or as hard as they can run!!



Edited by JonSCKs 1/21/2016 08:58
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