So consider this.. "The 10% plan"  It's not for everyone.. you need to evaluate your risks and ability to withstand being wrong.. "uh-hum"

but.. everyone is wondering whether to pitch grain now or wait.. as I show above in the burn table.. users are gonna need our grain later this summer.. maybe it's worth more?.. looking like La Nina.. maybe it's not?  El Nino hangs on...

Anywho.. since the odds are increasing POST El Nino.. that this year.. or more likely next year.. we are going to have a short crop..  I would guess we still bust a 165'ish plus yield with a little dry august.. but next year.. with full La Nina.. odds favor more of a rally.

So hold on a little tighter.. go get a gov't loan if ya need the cash flow.. make sure you have an exit plan.. there's still carry in the market all the way into new crop.. so whatever you decide to hold.. make sure you have at least that much covered with the New Crop carry..  and take the extra $$$ we're gonna make and add storage.

If we held onto say.. a billion bushels.. that would be 7.3% of last year's crop for a couple extra months.. make the funds pony up.. see what kind of card Ma Nature is gonna play this summer..  Golly I'd sure like to know if August is gonna be as dry as it's looking right now.. and if we're wrong.. shucks.. guess I'll just deliver it on new crop 2016 corn contracts.

Meanwhile.. you have the whole summer to add storage.. build another bin.. jack up an existing bin.. clean out ones your not using.. which if we're transitioning from El Nino to La Nina anyway.. don't you want to have MORE STORAGE full of Grain?  (sure beats the stock market..)

And If you Lock the carry in.. (Maize can show ya how..) it's virtually risk free.. shoot you can lock in March 2017 at $3.94 right now.. $.31 carry.. and if ya get a weather rally this summer.. "even better"  stay flexible that you can fill it with 2016 crop..  If no weather rally.. deliver the grain in the bin.. take out a 9 month government loan for 1.45% interest or whatever it is.. about what the market is offering... and deliver that.

Farmer holding is allowing us to firm up basis.. Yes it's regional.. Upper plains are gonna have a lot of bushels left over.. the rest of us.. just a matter of how much floods out from that area...???

fire away.. 

$3.94.. put an order in for $4.00.. $4.05.. $4.15

I told my merchant not to bother calling with any offers less than $4.00..  I can continue to fill last year's $4.50 + carry fills for now.. and build bins until I see $4.?? again.

yipper.. that's the plan.  "pay me now.. or pay me later."