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Question for you Jon
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JonSCKs
Posted 1/9/2016 08:11 (#5022730 - in reply to #5022700)
Subject: Commercials have moved inventory


"Center of the Universe.."  ha ha.. good one.

The Commercials moved inventory pre New Years as they needed to pick up piles that had 5"+ of rain on them.. "here."

A lot of this spoiled crap is being discounted and fed to hogs.. or sitting in piles at the edge of the location.. hmmm.. smells good too.

So the hedged inventory has been reduced.. how do we know it's as big as YOU think it is?  I checked with our coop yesterday which does.. ??  15 myn bushels or something like that.. they are "current" which probably means they have a couple 100 k bushels.. a couple weeks worth of grain.. they still have 50% to buy from the farmer.. at this point.. that's probably it for the summer weather markets..  The broke farmers have pitched by now...

Buyers on the other hand are going hand to mouth.. everyone knows this.  Sellers know that all they have to do is slow down the pace.. and basis will improve.

IF the WASDE trims the corn yield.. and or.. ups the ethanol grind.. coupled with the seasonal uptick in exports.. say the Carryout comes in.. to .. 1650
ish or thereabouts.. then you'll see an uptick in movement and the basis beat back.. Anything less than that and I don't see anything but basis strength.

Hope you have a good year too Ray..

Later. 

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