That report was after the 5th.. I would guess that the $.10 pop in wheaties yesterday covered some.. but I would venture that it would take another $.30 to $.50 to let them all out.

For the WASDE.. we are still 100 myn behind on the wheat export pace.. but this does not include the..??  20 to 30 myn of flour and product exports as well as how ever many Census exports we will gain...  All told it has averaged a little over 60 myn bushels over the past 8 years between the Census and the FAS....

( http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=600537&pos... ) 

I don't know if they need to buy.. but If say China came in for a couple mmt's here down the stretch then we most likely would beat last year's export pace..

The rumor on Monday was that Argentina was shipping feed wheat into the US SE..  Which leads me to the next couple of items on the WASDE...  I expect that wheat fed will be increased.. partly on all the junk that was harvested below milling grade last year in the heavy rain area.. and I also expect imports to fall as Canadian crops have been reduced.. even with the dollar relationship.. why would you ship into the US at these values?  I believe Cargill mentioned it in their earnings report last week.. "arbitrage opportunities did not present themselves as much as previously.." or words to that effect.

So I would guess that we come down a little on the Wheat carry out..??? but still with burdensome supplies.. either way I still don't see how you get a report .. unless they jack carryout to over a byn bushels that satisfies the position the funds are in..  

Odds are we rally even with a bearish report.   As producers.. all we have to do is meter it out with demand and wait for the funds to cover.. like they did some yesterday..  as they no doubt got more to go.

SatMonster asked MtoM a question about fund position.. his response was basically a powder keg waiting to blow..  with the numbers above you can see why..

Maybe they skate through??  but I just don't see that..  golly how short are they in crude?

( http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/petroleum_sf.htm )

57,689 K's short vs 22,875 long.. an increase of 3,185 K's short for the reporting period vs a liquidation of 1,509 K's Long or a net of 35,000'ish Contracts short..  Not as bad as grains but ready for a pop their also...???

The Deflationary shorts boat is too full.