This is the same ol argument that I've been going back to for quite awhile..  My meterologist was looking for El Nino to come sooner than it did.. then fall apart faster than it has..  and admitted as much the last time we talked.

He's still in the camp that believes you guys paid your dues in 2011/12.. that drought migrated north.. then west.. and we're seeing possible the long drought in California finally hosed down.

Again his claim has been because of the AMO/PDO cycle that it is the Northern Plains that are due to suffer "the next time"..  (I know.. heard it before ad nauseum..)  So.. "we'll see.."

The main thing is that we have seen very good yields in 2013, 2014 and 2015.. the odds of these continuing are running slim..

As this phase winds down.. we still expect the southern storm track to run through the Southern Plains before the faucet turns off.. what comes next...???

Although I think things may not be quite as rosey.. mainly on a wet spring..  I do believe we'll probably squeek out another decent sized crop before the real crunch sets in later in the fall through 2017..  but who knows...??

However, I will probably hold onto some gambling stocks into the summer just to find out... 

Sat asked about Crude in the 30's.. no doubt the next couple of quarters are probably gonna be rough in the Oil Patch till enough marginal production gets shut in..  11% of US Crude comes from Stripper wells.. along with the natural decline rates..

( http://www.theenergycollective.com/nathan-randazzo/2311267/stripper... ) explains some of the issues with Stripper wells.. and yes.. as Tara would say.. technology can offer some solutions.. still... there's only so much $$$ you can throw at a problem.. everything must return something.

Rapier asks the question if KSA made a mistake on not dialing down production..

( http://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2016/01/08/opecs-trillion-dolla... )

Overall, OPEC members produced 36.5 million bpd of oil and natural gas liquids in 2014. When they met in November 2014, oil prices had already suffered a sharp fall from summer, but crude was still trading at ~$75/bbl. The world was probably oversupplied at that time by 1-2 million bpd, so if OPEC had merely decided to remove 2 million bpd off the world markets — only 5.5% of the group’s combined 2014 production — the price drop could have easily been arrested and maintained in the $75-$85/bbl range. That would have still given them 38.9% of the global crude oil market. For that matter, a production quota cut of 13% could have removed from the market a volume equivalent to all of the U.S. shale oil production added between 2008 and 2014.

Would that strategy have cost them market share? Sure, a small amount. But assume they then pumped 34.5 million bpd at $80/bbl. That’s just over a trillion dollars in annual revenue. If instead they pump 36.5 million bpd at $35/bbl — which is actually more than they are getting as I write this — that’s $466 billion in annual revenues. The annual difference in those scenarios is $541 billion. OPEC already lost out on that much in 2015 from the sharp drop in prices. If prices remain at these levels for most of this year, the foregone revenue for OPEC in 2015 and 2016 will easily top $1 trillion since that November 2014 meeting. 

Things will sort themselves out.. one way or another.. but supply will realign with demand.. as always.. KSA could change their mind..  At this point they would make more by dialing production down.. probably closer than most realize...???

I could be wrong though..??