I didn't make a big deal last year since the year before I kind of nailed the Dec 1st stocks report.. It seemed to me like last year they were 200 myn bushels long by my numbers..  Granted what do I know?  So blew it off..

Still all the merchandisers seem to think there's a beau coup amount of grain yet to come.. as of tonight I have 5 bins empty.. I'm on the floor of bins 6 and 7.. with 5 more to go.. of this.. I only have.. 3 that are not priced.

My broker was trying to break the basis back on me this week.. to wit.. I said "no thanks.."  I've got enough contracted grain to keep me busy for the next 4 weeks.. I don't have to sell anything.. really.. till later this summer.  The buyers seem to think we are bluffing.. so I called the Coop this afternoon..

"What would it cost to buy corn?"

"hmm.. a number that is pretty firm.."

"They are trying to get me to cave.. you guys seem to be pretty current.. are you?"

"pretty much.. we've moved most of our current inventory.. the farmer still holds inventory.."

"how much?"

"maybe.. 50%"

So basically... if the farmer hasn't caved by now.. we're in a pretty good position till the spring/summer weather markets.  There's a carry in the market.. seems to me like the only thing we have to do is wait...  The basis is going to improve.. till we get our number.

The funds are short.. seems like everyone is bearish.. all we need is a pop.. something to lite the fuse.

As for me.. it's gonna take time now to sweep up off the floor anyway.. Since I took a gov't loan out.. my bills are paid.. so stand pat and see what comes..

"could be wrong.."  If I am.. I can always deliver my unsold bushels on next year's contracts.. and push next year off into the future.. by then we'll be in La Nina.. odds favor a pop at that point...

anywho...  fwiw. 

anyone else get this feeling that we're due for a WASDE surprise to the short side of stocks..?  

Just got this tingly feeling...  buyers think we got more than we actually do.. case here at least.