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Eighty Four, PA | Received the e-mail below from my brother, who received it from someone else. The baby boomers reach age 70 this year, forcing mandatory withdrawls from IRAs. Couple that with fewer people working and college grads with huge educational loans and the mutual funds begin to have cash outflows exceeding cash inflows.
The basis in the USA economy is a boom / bust economic
cycle where from the valley of the bust, huge amounts of
personal individual and generational wealth can be made by
anyone. However, during the bust times everything pretty
much goes to ****.
The bust part of the cycle is caused by advances in
technology that completely alter the economy, generally
speaking. For instance, in the 'sixties and 'seventies,
thousands and thousands of "key punch operators" were
working ten hour shifts punching holes in cardboard computer
cards, so as to get data into second-generation mainframe
computers. In those years, the financial pages of the Wall
St. Journal were all hand-entered every day (think about
that!).
Today, all those jobs are gone.
In the 'fifties and 'sixties, every manager had a trained
secretary who (1.) took down his verbal correspondence in
speedwritten "Pittman Shorthand"; (2.) typed the letter on a
manual typewriter with four or five sheets of carbon paper
to make copies. (3.) After receiving her boss's signature
on the letter, she filed the carbon copy manually in a file
cabinet, folded, stamped and sealed the letter, addressed it
, and mailed it. It normally took three or four business
days to arrive at the recipient's desk.
Today, all those secretarial jobs are gone; most of the post
office jobs that carried the mail are gone. Today the
executive has no secretary, and types his letter as an
"email" and sends, files and receives it all by himself,
from his own personal computer.
I'm sure that you can think of a dozen other examples based
on your own career!
Here's the crashes:
1850s - 1860s (Buchanan blamed)
1890s - 1900s (Cleveland blamed)
1930s - 1940s (Hoover McKinley blamed)
1970s - 1980s (Carter blamed)
2010s - 2020s (Trump or Clinton blamed)
The interesting thing is it never collapses at the end of a
POTUS' term. When it's supposed to happen and it falls
during a two term POTUS the government typically cook the
books and floats the boat until they're gone. Then the next
person comes in and the house of cards collapses and they
get the blame.
Another interesting thing is the POTUS that follows the one
blamed is considered a GREAT President. They are, Lincoln,
Teddy, FDR, Reagan.
The coming collapse won't happen until after Bammy leaves,
then BOOM, soup lines.
The time frame is 2017-2020.
The next POTUS will be blamed.
Also, this collapse is DEFLATIONARY. Don't be fooled by the
cost of food as an indicator of inflation. We are
experiencing deflation, this is why precious metals have not
really moved all that much. Copper is down, oil down, Baltic
Dry Index - down, down, down. Having some precious metals is
great, but it will not save you. Remember FDR confiscated
gold in 1934. The best you can hope for with precious metals
is to break even. Yes, it can protect you from losing
everything, but you can forget about getting rich off of it
during a real collapse.
And no, 2008 wasn't even remotely close to a real collapse.
As robots and AI replace jobs by the tens of thousands over
the next 5-10 years, America is going to go through a huge
shift in our economy. Self driving cars and trucks will be
the driving force of the next collapse in 2050-2060. San
Francisco alone, nets over 100 million a year in
driver-automobile related things, fines, fees, taxes, etc.
Newspapers, magazines, printed books. That will all go
away.
But right now we're going to rapidly see the workforce being
replaced. I don't care if you agree with it or don't like
it. It's going to happen.
Bottom line: Just know that another Great Depression is
coming.
Soon! | |
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Deflation
