| As interesting as the article is, have to say that I will take any standard options-implied probability distribution over a historical analysis any day. There is just too much bearish (China, full soil profile, oil) and bullish (likely transition to ENSO-neutral summer, price-elasticity of supply, sustained historically low carry on a percentage basis) news that I trust the market to price in vs simply drawing from a historical distribution.
Edited by agavegoose 1/5/2016 20:37
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