| Richard asked yesterday about the expected WASDE changes for Soybeans.. again this was what they did last year..
14/15
Aug 430
Sept 475
Nov 450
Jan 410
Mar 385
Apr 370
May 350
Jun 330 15/16
July 255
Aug 240 470
Sept 210 450
Oct 191 425
Nov 191 465
Dec 191 465
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194
I talked about the Wheat carryout below.. first of we imported 16 myn bushels less of wheat in the First quarter..
( http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-data.aspx#25171 ) that would be north of 50+ myn bushels if that trend continued.. are we really going to import 149 myn bushels from Canada like we did last year? or will it be below 100..?? (more likely..)
Next I talked about the Census vs the FAS numbers.. FAS does not include the Flour and product exports reported weekly.. they are added months after the fact.. thus we could actually be AHEAD of last year's pace.. Remember how the Last WASDE for 14/15 found about 50 myn in wheat exports?? as they added the flour and products? Well here we are again...
from below..
I pulled out the Flour and Product exports from the Census data for review. Note the Census Grain Exports are different than the FAS Grain exports.. so it's not correct to simply add only the Flour and Product exports as the Census also seems to gain on Grain exports.. (containers..?? ) Anywho it's this TOTAL column that is used in the WASDE below... and how it gets there.. Note for the Current year the Census data is only updated through October. ( http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-data.aspx#25171 ) In 1,000 bushels.. Grain equivalent.
| | Census data | | | | | | | | | | | | | Flour + Products | | | Grain | Flour | Products | Total | | | | | 1989/90 | 1,178,464 | 53,450 | 1,356 | 1,233,269 | | 54,805 | | | 1990/91 | 1,025,677 | 40,464 | 1,797 | 1,067,938 | | 42,261 | | | 1991/92 | 1,228,636 | 51,176 | 1,405 | 1,281,217 | | 52,581 | | | 1992/93 | 1,297,022 | 54,777 | 3,162 | 1,354,961 | | 57,939 | | | 1993/94 | 1,178,059 | 48,033 | 1,729 | 1,227,822 | | 49,763 | | | 1994/95 | 1,124,657 | 61,807 | 1,791 | 1,188,255 | | 63,598 | | | 1995/96 | 1,206,051 | 33,189 | 1,904 | 1,241,143 | | 35,092 | | | 1996/97 | 974,296 | 25,472 | 1,753 | 1,001,522 | | 27,225 | | | 1997/98 | 1,013,012 | 24,393 | 2,985 | 1,040,391 | | 27,378 | | | 1998/99 | 1,006,591 | 35,270 | 3,516 | 1,045,377 | | 38,786 | | | 1999/00 | 1,038,543 | 43,046 | 4,910 | 1,086,499 | | 47,956 | | | 2000/01 | 1,024,254 | 34,199 | 3,587 | 1,062,041 | | 37,787 | | | 2001/02 | 932,081 | 26,668 | 4,523 | 963,273 | | 31,191 | | | 2002/03 | 821,783 | 19,774 | 7,504 | 849,061 | | 27,278 | | | 2003/04 | 1,132,944 | 16,490 | 8,890 | 1,158,324 | | 25,380 | | | 2004/05 | 1,046,977 | 10,854 | 8,079 | 1,065,910 | | 18,934 | | | 2005/06 | 982,101 | 9,959 | 10,721 | 1,002,781 | | 20,680 | | | 2006/07 | 893,969 | 11,412 | 10,340 | 915,721 | | 21,752 | | | 2007/08 | 1,234,589 | 16,780 | 9,922 | 1,261,292 | | 26,703 | | | 2008/09 | 993,058 | 11,542 | 10,814 | 1,015,415 | | 22,357 | | | 2009/10 | 850,079 | 19,755 | 9,462 | 879,297 | | 29,217 | | | 2010/11 | 1,268,035 | 15,343 | 8,068 | 1,291,446 | | 23,411 | | | 2011/12 | 1,030,459 | 12,731 | 7,902 | 1,051,091 | | 20,632 | | | 2012/13 | 988,805 | 15,252 | 8,008 | 1,012,066 | | 23,260 | | | 2013/14 | 1,155,053 | 12,816 | 7,972 | 1,175,841 | | 20,788 | | | 2014/15 | 832,070 | 14,509 | 7,692 | 854,271 | | 22,201 | | | 2015/16 | 335,018 | 6,686 | 3,108 | 344,812 | | 9,793 | * Through first 5 months of Marketing Year |
So it is possible that the WASDE cuts wheat carryout..50 on imports + 50 on flour and products could take C/O down to around 800 myn..over 100 myn overstated vs now.. all the while the funds have been piling into shorts..
Edited by JonSCKs 1/5/2016 08:43
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Committment of Traders: Funds go to 1.5 byn bushels short
